324 
FXUS61 KCAR 051927
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WILL EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE COAST WILL 
CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. OTHER THAN 
PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER FAR DOWNEAST EARLY THIS 
EVENING, NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CLOUDS 
WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOME PARTLY 
CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
TODAY'S RAIN, SO PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND 
LINGER INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 
AROUND 50 IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW LEADING 
TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF 
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT THESE SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH. HIGHS 
WILL BE SEASONABLE TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE MID 
70S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS LATE. THE FRONT WILL WASHOUT ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS OR EVEN A STEADIER RAIN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROF
WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WHAT SHOULD THEN BE HURRICANE LESLIE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING NORTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROF CROSSING MAINE SHOULD STEER THE STORM EAST OF THE
GULF OF MAINE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTH FROM LESLIE INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY DEPENDING
ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. A
PERIOD OF HIGH SURF CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK AS LARGE WAVES WILL BE PROPAGATED WELL
AWAY FROM THE STORM'S CENTER. FINALLY, A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETTING UP BETWEEN THE STORM TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST. THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MARITIMES
LATER MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
THEN BUILD EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING, MAINLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS FOG AND
LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR WILL COME AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING.


SHORT TERM: VFR TO START THURSDAY EVENING BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG/SCT SHOWERS. ANY PATCHY
MORNING FOG SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO
VFR. AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER/TSTM IS POSSIBLE DURING FRIDAY WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LOCAL MFVR IN ANY HEAVIER ACTIVITY. WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS IN FOG.
MVFR/IFR IS ALSO A GOOD BET MOST OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHRA/RA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY 
ON THURSDAY. WAVES WILL DROP TO RIGHT AROUND 4-5 FT BY EARLY 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE LEFT THE 
SCA AS IS FOR NOW, EXPIRING AT 11 AM TOMORROW MORNING SINCE THE 
WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE THEREAFTER. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO 
RE-EVALUATE AND POTENTIALLY EXTEND IT IF NECESSARY.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY
NIGHT. SWELL FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM LESLIE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
WATERS LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS
LIKELY. THESE HIGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT 
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...HASTINGS
MARINE...HASTINGS/DUDA