324 FXUS61 KCAR 051927 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 327 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER FAR DOWNEAST EARLY THIS EVENING, NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S RAIN, SO PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT THESE SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS LATE. THE FRONT WILL WASHOUT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A STEADIER RAIN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WHAT SHOULD THEN BE HURRICANE LESLIE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING NORTH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF CROSSING MAINE SHOULD STEER THE STORM EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTH FROM LESLIE INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. A PERIOD OF HIGH SURF CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK AS LARGE WAVES WILL BE PROPAGATED WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM'S CENTER. FINALLY, A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE STORM TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MARITIMES LATER MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, MAINLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS FOG AND LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR WILL COME AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. SHORT TERM: VFR TO START THURSDAY EVENING BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG/SCT SHOWERS. ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO VFR. AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER/TSTM IS POSSIBLE DURING FRIDAY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LOCAL MFVR IN ANY HEAVIER ACTIVITY. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS IN FOG. MVFR/IFR IS ALSO A GOOD BET MOST OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA/RA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WAVES WILL DROP TO RIGHT AROUND 4-5 FT BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE LEFT THE SCA AS IS FOR NOW, EXPIRING AT 11 AM TOMORROW MORNING SINCE THE WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE THEREAFTER. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE AND POTENTIALLY EXTEND IT IF NECESSARY. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. SWELL FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM LESLIE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WATERS LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS LIKELY. THESE HIGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...HASTINGS MARINE...HASTINGS/DUDA