292 
FXUS62 KMHX 030845 AAA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
445 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WEST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 440 AM MON...WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
CRYSTAL COAST DUE TO MERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE NIGHT
NEAR RALEIGH/ROCKY MOUNT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF
SURFACE HEATING AND THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL/NEGLIGIBLE.
SPC MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATE BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR THE
COAST WITH MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CIN. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE
ADDED CHANCE POPS WHERE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM NEAR HOLLY
RIDGE NE TO NEAR NEW BERN. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...GENERALLY EXPECT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO FALL TO
NEAR ZERO WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
PATCHY FOG FOR INLAND AREAS.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF EASTERN NC TODAY WITH
BEST FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK SHORTWAVES/VORTMAX SLIDING WEST
TO EAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE CWA. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES PER LATEST LAPS AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED AND DEBRIS
CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT FULL INSOLATION...THUS GENERALLY EXPECT STORMS
TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH BIGGEST THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A PROBLEM GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW.
850 MB LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RANGE 1410-1415 METERS WHICH
WILL YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S TO UPPER 80S AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM MON...SYNOPTIC REGIME CHANGES LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH
STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN NC AND WEAK CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT
AS BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD...LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MON...EASTERN NC WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL TEND TO DOMINATE WITH
THE MODELS INDICATING PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE POPS
TUESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE (00Z GFS/MAV POPS WERE NOW BELOW 15%)...INDICATE
DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN FORECAST MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR FAR WEST WHERE CHANCE POPS WERE
CONTINUED. HIGHS INLAND WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
WITH READINGS NEAR 90 AND MID 80S BEACHES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. LATE WEDNESDAY THE
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ASCENT AND THUS ARE DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT LOWER...MAINLY MID TO UPPER
80S GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE
SURFACE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST AS UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES MORE BLOCKY WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES AND SLOW MOVING LESLIE WELL OFFSHORE. POPS MAY NEED
TO BE INCREASED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
THE FRONT BECOME STATIONARY AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE DEEP TROUGH/UPPER CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 
AS OF 120 AM MON...WEAK CONVECTION MAY IMPACT ISO/PGV EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FALLING TO NEAR ZERO...WITH SOME TAF
SITES REPORTED INTERMITTENT 4-7 SM FOG ALREADY. ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SCU AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WIND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG/LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT IF WINDS FALL TO CALM AND RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MAXIMIZED.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
AS OF 250 AM MON...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE ANY ISOLD/SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO REDUCED VSBYS/CEILINGS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LONG PERIOD 10-13 SECOND SEAS 1-2 FT. WEAK S TO SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COASTAL WATERS REMAIN SOUTH OF A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. LONG PERIOD
SWELLS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ARE DUE TO DISTANT AND DISSIPATED
TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY EVEN LONGER PERIOD
SWELLS...13-15 SECONDS...THIS EVENING DUE TO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEAS WILL RUN 1-3 FT TODAY AND BUILD
SLIGHTLY TO 2-5 FT TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE HIGHER SEAS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS ARE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF LESLIE. CURRENT
WAVE FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON WAVEWATCH III SPECTRAL DATA.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MON...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NORTH OF
THE WATERS TUESDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
10-15 KT ACROSS THE NC WATERS...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING SW WINDS TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE MARINE FORECAST WILL BE INCREASED
SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. LESLIE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS BERMUDA AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME
QUITE LARGE...WHICH WILL AID IN PRODUCING LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF
13-15 SECONDS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO
4-6 FT BY TUESDAY EVENING AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 5 TO 7 FEET
MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS WITH BREAKING WAVES AS LARGE AS 6-9 FEET. A HIGH THREAT
OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY GO INTO EFFECT TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...BTC/JME/DAG
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG