292 FXUS62 KMHX 030845 AAA AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 445 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WEST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 440 AM MON...WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE CRYSTAL COAST DUE TO MERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE NIGHT NEAR RALEIGH/ROCKY MOUNT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF SURFACE HEATING AND THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL/NEGLIGIBLE. SPC MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATE BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST WITH MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS WHERE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM NEAR HOLLY RIDGE NE TO NEAR NEW BERN. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...GENERALLY EXPECT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG FOR INLAND AREAS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF EASTERN NC TODAY WITH BEST FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK SHORTWAVES/VORTMAX SLIDING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE CWA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES PER LATEST LAPS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED AND DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT FULL INSOLATION...THUS GENERALLY EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH BIGGEST THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A PROBLEM GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW. 850 MB LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RANGE 1410-1415 METERS WHICH WILL YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S TO UPPER 80S AGAIN TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 120 AM MON...SYNOPTIC REGIME CHANGES LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN NC AND WEAK CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE. TEMPS WILL BE MILD...LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 250 AM MON...EASTERN NC WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL TEND TO DOMINATE WITH THE MODELS INDICATING PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE POPS TUESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE (00Z GFS/MAV POPS WERE NOW BELOW 15%)...INDICATE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN FORECAST MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR FAR WEST WHERE CHANCE POPS WERE CONTINUED. HIGHS INLAND WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH READINGS NEAR 90 AND MID 80S BEACHES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. LATE WEDNESDAY THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ASCENT AND THUS ARE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT LOWER...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. LATE IN THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE SURFACE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST AS UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE BLOCKY WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND SLOW MOVING LESLIE WELL OFFSHORE. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD THE FRONT BECOME STATIONARY AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE DEEP TROUGH/UPPER CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 120 AM MON...WEAK CONVECTION MAY IMPACT ISO/PGV EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FALLING TO NEAR ZERO...WITH SOME TAF SITES REPORTED INTERMITTENT 4-7 SM FOG ALREADY. ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCU AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT IF WINDS FALL TO CALM AND RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES MAXIMIZED. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 250 AM MON...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE ANY ISOLD/SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS/CEILINGS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 115 AM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LONG PERIOD 10-13 SECOND SEAS 1-2 FT. WEAK S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COASTAL WATERS REMAIN SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. LONG PERIOD SWELLS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ARE DUE TO DISTANT AND DISSIPATED TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY EVEN LONGER PERIOD SWELLS...13-15 SECONDS...THIS EVENING DUE TO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEAS WILL RUN 1-3 FT TODAY AND BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-5 FT TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE HIGHER SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS ARE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF LESLIE. CURRENT WAVE FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON WAVEWATCH III SPECTRAL DATA. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 250 AM MON...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NORTH OF THE WATERS TUESDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KT ACROSS THE NC WATERS...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND INCREASING SW WINDS TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE MARINE FORECAST WILL BE INCREASED SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS BERMUDA AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE LARGE...WHICH WILL AID IN PRODUCING LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 13-15 SECONDS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY TUESDAY EVENING AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 5 TO 7 FEET MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH BREAKING WAVES AS LARGE AS 6-9 FEET. A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY GO INTO EFFECT TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG NEAR TERM...DAG SHORT TERM...DAG LONG TERM...BTC/JME AVIATION...BTC/JME/DAG MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG