126 
FXUS61 KRLX 061946
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
346 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WASHES OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT CLEARING SKIES WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THEN WASHOUT JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. CLEARING IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE
VISIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER AS WELL. AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HANG ON OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND MOUNTAIN ZONES WITH THE
FRONT AND ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE CWA. MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND WITH ANY HEATING COULD DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO DURING
DAY...BUT OTHERWISE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW CU
AROUND. TEMPS REBOUND A TAD WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY...EXEC PT FOR
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH WEAK BOUNDARY GETTING HUNG UP IN SOUTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS...WILL 
KEEP CHC POPS IN THROUGH EARLY WEDS MORNING. 12Z NAM CONTINUES THE 
TREND OF PUSHING MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA LINE FURTHER 
INTO RNK. WHILE SREF HOLDS MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE FURTHER 
WEST...STILL NOT BACK ENOUGH TO KEEP SLGT CHC IN WEDS MID MORNING. 
NAM LEAKS A LITTLE LLVL MOISTURE BACK IN NEAR PEAK MIDDAY HEATING SO 
THROWING POPS BACK INTO WV MNTS AND ALONG CKB-CRW LINE ALONG WEAK SW 
TROF.

MOISTURE INCREASES THURS AHEAD OF DEEPER TROF ARRIVING FOR END OF 
THE WEEK. MAXING OUT TEMPS THURS WITH WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF 
AXIS. KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE TICKS HIGHER THAN WEDS HIGHS AT LOW 90S 
IN THE LOWLANDS. STICKING CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED IN REGARDS 
TO THE AMPLIFYING DEEP TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z 
GFS LINE UP WELL WITH AXIS OF TROF OVER SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ALSO 
STRONG MODEL CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN...SO LEANING HEAVILY ON 
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC THINKING. TWEAKING POPS JUST A BIT TO 
LIMIT BELOW LIKELY POPS...REASON BEING POPS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED 
ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRI MORNING WITH INCREASED 
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH THESE POTENTIAL TIMING 
PITFALLS...KEEPING POPS BROAD AND IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE.

COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW. 
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 60S TO 70S IN THIS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WASHOUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. BKN
WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS UNTIL ABOUT 20Z BEFORE COMING VFR. MOST
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.  CLEARING WILL BE SLOW FROM THE WEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND ANY AREAS THAT CLEARS
SHOULD SEE MVFR TO LIFR FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT MAINLY AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH THE USUAL IFR TO LIFR FOG AND CIGS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z TUESDAY.

VFR CONDTIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z-14Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT
HIGH CLOUDS WEST WITH DIURNAL CU FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...TAX
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...JS