126 FXUS61 KRLX 061946 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 346 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WASHES OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT CLEARING SKIES WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THEN WASHOUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. CLEARING IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER AS WELL. AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HANG ON OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND MOUNTAIN ZONES WITH THE FRONT AND ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA. MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WITH ANY HEATING COULD DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO DURING DAY...BUT OTHERWISE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW CU AROUND. TEMPS REBOUND A TAD WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY...EXEC PT FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... WITH WEAK BOUNDARY GETTING HUNG UP IN SOUTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS...WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THROUGH EARLY WEDS MORNING. 12Z NAM CONTINUES THE TREND OF PUSHING MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA LINE FURTHER INTO RNK. WHILE SREF HOLDS MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE FURTHER WEST...STILL NOT BACK ENOUGH TO KEEP SLGT CHC IN WEDS MID MORNING. NAM LEAKS A LITTLE LLVL MOISTURE BACK IN NEAR PEAK MIDDAY HEATING SO THROWING POPS BACK INTO WV MNTS AND ALONG CKB-CRW LINE ALONG WEAK SW TROF. MOISTURE INCREASES THURS AHEAD OF DEEPER TROF ARRIVING FOR END OF THE WEEK. MAXING OUT TEMPS THURS WITH WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF AXIS. KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE TICKS HIGHER THAN WEDS HIGHS AT LOW 90S IN THE LOWLANDS. STICKING CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLIFYING DEEP TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS LINE UP WELL WITH AXIS OF TROF OVER SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ALSO STRONG MODEL CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN...SO LEANING HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC THINKING. TWEAKING POPS JUST A BIT TO LIMIT BELOW LIKELY POPS...REASON BEING POPS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRI MORNING WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH THESE POTENTIAL TIMING PITFALLS...KEEPING POPS BROAD AND IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE. COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 60S TO 70S IN THIS REGIME. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WASHOUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. BKN WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS UNTIL ABOUT 20Z BEFORE COMING VFR. MOST SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING WILL BE SLOW FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND ANY AREAS THAT CLEARS SHOULD SEE MVFR TO LIFR FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT MAINLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...WITH THE USUAL IFR TO LIFR FOG AND CIGS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDTIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z-14Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS WEST WITH DIURNAL CU FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...TAX LONG TERM...TAX AVIATION...JS