366 
FXUS62 KMHX 022329
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
STALL AND WEAKEN FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF
THE MHX FCST AREA EARLY THIS EVE. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL TROF
OVRHEAD...WILL HANG ONTO A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR ANY ISOLD ACTIVITY
THRU THE LATE EVENING THEN SHUD BE MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...AND LIGHT SRLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THU...MODELS AGREE ON SHRT WV STALL OVER AREA AND 
SHEARING OUT ON FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME 
SFC PATTERN. MODELS GENERALLY INDICATING LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE 
THAN TODAY...AND KEPT POPS AT 20% FOR FAVORED AREAS ALONG AND NW OF 
SEA BREEZE ZONE. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND AND 
UPR 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...CONTINUED WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
OR FORECAST REASONING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE BERMUDA HIGH
ALSO STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE ALLOWING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION INLAND AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL PERSIST AT 1415-1420
METERS...YIELDING TEMPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
90S INLAND TO 80S ALONG THE COAST.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
PWATS AGAIN BUILDING ABOVE 2 INCHES. 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE MON THROUGH THURS 
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. 00Z/12Z ECMWF SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT
TUES NIGHT AND PUSH NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TUES THROUGH THURS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND STALLED SURFACE FRONT CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 1415 METERS MON THROUGH THURS HOWEVER GREATER CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP MAY MODERATE TEMPS FROM REACHING ABOVE THE 90
DEGREE MARK EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY RESIDUAL CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN NC.
WITH CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION...PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS SHUD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR LIKELY MOST
TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE SHALLOW FOG/STRATUS LIFTS QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ 
AS OF 330 PM THURS...PREDOMINANT VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RETURN OF TYPICAL DIURNAL
CYCLE OF S-SW WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THRU THE EVENING...DIMINISHING
LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN FRI AFTN.
SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

WW3 CONTINUES TO INITIALIZE ABOUT 1 FOOT TOO HIGH WITH SEAS OVER 
OUTER PORTIONS...AND LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST AND SWAN DURING PERIOD 
FOR HEIGHTS MAINLY 2-3 FT. 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ 
AS OF 330 PM WED...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGING
SLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL RANGE GENERALLY 10-15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN LATE SUN AND MON AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
15-20 KT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS
BUILD ACCORDINGLY TO AROUND 3-5 FT SUN NIGHT TROUGH MON FROM
DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH...BUT REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. SWAN APPEARED OVERDONE FOR MON INTO TUES SO HEDGED TOWARDS
PREVIOUS WAVE FORECAST WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG/LEP
MARINE...JBM/BTC/DAG