366 FXUS62 KMHX 022329 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 729 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE MHX FCST AREA EARLY THIS EVE. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL TROF OVRHEAD...WILL HANG ONTO A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR ANY ISOLD ACTIVITY THRU THE LATE EVENING THEN SHUD BE MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...AND LIGHT SRLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THU...MODELS AGREE ON SHRT WV STALL OVER AREA AND SHEARING OUT ON FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME SFC PATTERN. MODELS GENERALLY INDICATING LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY...AND KEPT POPS AT 20% FOR FAVORED AREAS ALONG AND NW OF SEA BREEZE ZONE. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPR 80S COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 PM THURS...CONTINUED WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE ALLOWING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION INLAND AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL PERSIST AT 1415-1420 METERS...YIELDING TEMPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO 80S ALONG THE COAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MON WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PWATS AGAIN BUILDING ABOVE 2 INCHES. 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE MON THROUGH THURS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. 00Z/12Z ECMWF SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT TUES NIGHT AND PUSH NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TUES THROUGH THURS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND STALLED SURFACE FRONT CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1415 METERS MON THROUGH THURS HOWEVER GREATER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MAY MODERATE TEMPS FROM REACHING ABOVE THE 90 DEGREE MARK EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY RESIDUAL CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN NC. WITH CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS SHUD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR LIKELY MOST TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE SHALLOW FOG/STRATUS LIFTS QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ AS OF 330 PM THURS...PREDOMINANT VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RETURN OF TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OF S-SW WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THRU THE EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN FRI AFTN. SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KT. WW3 CONTINUES TO INITIALIZE ABOUT 1 FOOT TOO HIGH WITH SEAS OVER OUTER PORTIONS...AND LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST AND SWAN DURING PERIOD FOR HEIGHTS MAINLY 2-3 FT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ AS OF 330 PM WED...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGING SLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL RANGE GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN LATE SUN AND MON AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS BUILD ACCORDINGLY TO AROUND 3-5 FT SUN NIGHT TROUGH MON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH...BUT REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWAN APPEARED OVERDONE FOR MON INTO TUES SO HEDGED TOWARDS PREVIOUS WAVE FORECAST WITH MINOR TWEAKS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...BTC/DAG/LEP MARINE...JBM/BTC/DAG