275 
FXUS62 KMHX 261401
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
EARLY AM UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWARD OFF THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING.
HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND ON TRACK. 

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING WEST OVER EASTERN NC WITH SW SFC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL PLACE
EASTERN NC IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH MODERATE SW
BREEZE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1330-1340 METERS WHICH
WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S INLAND. GIVEN HEAT AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105-109 F THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORIES FOR
THE CWA. RIDGE ALOFT/SUBSIDENCE MAY SHUNT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH PWATS BUILDING BACK OVER 2
INCHES...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -8 C...AND SBCAPE OF 3500-4000
J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE IN SW PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
MULTIPLE REGIONAL/MESO MODELS. ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 540 AM THURS...WEAK CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWERS TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION. SW SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS MILD...RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT
EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN DECENT MIXING IN SW FLOW...HOWEVER 
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE WERE TO 
ADD SLGT CHC POPS ALL ZONES FRI EVENING...AND CHC POPS ALL ZONES SAT 
EVENING. MAIN FOCUS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HEAT 
INDICES NEAR 110 POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT CRYSTAL COAST BEACHES AND SRN 
OBX. MOS GDNC INDICATES DEW POINTS IN MID-UPR 70S WHICH WOULD RESULT 
IN SEVERAL HOURS OF 110-115 HEAT INDICES FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING 
CRITERIA. HOWEVER GDNC APPEARS TO BE INCREASING DEW POINTS TOO 
QUICKLY AND WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF LOW-MID 70S AND LET 
NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK. 

GFS AND NAM12 HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT ON SHRT WVS TO ADD 
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND CHC POPS SAT EVENING. SERIES OF 
SHORT WVS WILL ALLOW ERN US UPR TROF TO REDEVELOP OVER WEEKEND WITH 
SFC FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING INTO AREA BY SUNDAY...THEN STALLING OVER 
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHRT WVS WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH 
TROF MON-WED...PRODUCING WEAK SFC WAVES ALONG FRONT...WITH SCT 
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL MOST OF PERIOD. WILL KEEP POPS IN LOWER CHC RANGE 
FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN FCST TIMING OF SHRT WVS.  

AFTER HIGH TEMPS IN MID 90S AGAIN SATURDAY...UPR TROFFING AND 
STALLED SFC BNDRY WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE NEAR NORMAL/HIGHS NEAR 90 AND 
LOWS 70-75/ REST OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 720 AM THURS...EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. FLOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN VEER SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GOOD MIXING DURING PEAK
HEATING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WEST OVER EASTERN NC TODAY
WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SEA BREEZE AND
FARTHER INLAND. DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DECENT MIXING UNDER SW FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY 
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE THREAT. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND 
PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS FRONTAL 
BNDRY WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 10 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED FOR EARLY AM UPDATE. LATEST
SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE. EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 25 KT BUT EXPECT THIS
TO BE INFREQUENT AND THUS WILL NOT NEED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SW
FLOW 10-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH 
THIS ISSUANCE. MODERATE SW WINDS AND SEAS 3-5 FEET WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH SAT WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN. FRONTAL BNDRY 
WILL PUSH INTO AREA SUNDAY AND STALL OVER AREA REST OF 
PERIOD...PRODUCING SEVERAL DAYS OF WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. WIND 
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY SRLY FOR SRN WATERS BUT MORE VRBL FOR 
NRN SECTIONS. SWAN AND WW3 AGREE ON SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT SUN 
INTO MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG/CQD