275 FXUS62 KMHX 261401 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1001 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 10 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR EARLY AM UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWARD OFF THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING. HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND ON TRACK. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING WEST OVER EASTERN NC WITH SW SFC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL PLACE EASTERN NC IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH MODERATE SW BREEZE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1330-1340 METERS WHICH WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S INLAND. GIVEN HEAT AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-109 F THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE CWA. RIDGE ALOFT/SUBSIDENCE MAY SHUNT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH PWATS BUILDING BACK OVER 2 INCHES...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -8 C...AND SBCAPE OF 3500-4000 J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SW PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MULTIPLE REGIONAL/MESO MODELS. ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 540 AM THURS...WEAK CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWERS TO WANE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. SW SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS MILD...RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN DECENT MIXING IN SW FLOW...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE WERE TO ADD SLGT CHC POPS ALL ZONES FRI EVENING...AND CHC POPS ALL ZONES SAT EVENING. MAIN FOCUS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 110 POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT CRYSTAL COAST BEACHES AND SRN OBX. MOS GDNC INDICATES DEW POINTS IN MID-UPR 70S WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF 110-115 HEAT INDICES FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER GDNC APPEARS TO BE INCREASING DEW POINTS TOO QUICKLY AND WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF LOW-MID 70S AND LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK. GFS AND NAM12 HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT ON SHRT WVS TO ADD SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND CHC POPS SAT EVENING. SERIES OF SHORT WVS WILL ALLOW ERN US UPR TROF TO REDEVELOP OVER WEEKEND WITH SFC FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING INTO AREA BY SUNDAY...THEN STALLING OVER AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHRT WVS WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH TROF MON-WED...PRODUCING WEAK SFC WAVES ALONG FRONT...WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL MOST OF PERIOD. WILL KEEP POPS IN LOWER CHC RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN FCST TIMING OF SHRT WVS. AFTER HIGH TEMPS IN MID 90S AGAIN SATURDAY...UPR TROFFING AND STALLED SFC BNDRY WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE NEAR NORMAL/HIGHS NEAR 90 AND LOWS 70-75/ REST OF PERIOD. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 720 AM THURS...EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FLOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN VEER SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GOOD MIXING DURING PEAK HEATING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WEST OVER EASTERN NC TODAY WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SEA BREEZE AND FARTHER INLAND. DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DECENT MIXING UNDER SW FLOW. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE THREAT. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS FRONTAL BNDRY WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED FOR EARLY AM UPDATE. LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-3FT. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 25 KT BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE INFREQUENT AND THUS WILL NOT NEED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SW FLOW 10-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH THIS ISSUANCE. MODERATE SW WINDS AND SEAS 3-5 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN. FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH INTO AREA SUNDAY AND STALL OVER AREA REST OF PERIOD...PRODUCING SEVERAL DAYS OF WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY SRLY FOR SRN WATERS BUT MORE VRBL FOR NRN SECTIONS. SWAN AND WW3 AGREE ON SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT SUN INTO MON. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>095-098-103. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG SHORT TERM...DAG LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...JBM/DAG MARINE...JBM/DAG/CQD