136 
FXUS61 KCLE 211920
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
320 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS OHIO FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA SINKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. CUMULUS ACROSS THE
EAST WILL FADE AWAY THIS EVENING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AROUND 60 TONIGHT IN
THE COOLER EASTERN LOCATIONS. LOWER-MID 60S
ELSEWHERE...SEASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL LAKES WILL NEAR THE AREA...BUT STALL TO
OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENS.
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE INTO NW
PA/FAR NE OH SUNDAY MORNING. SREF AND WRFNMM WANT TO DEVELOP A
FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TS INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE THERE. WARMER SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW...WILL GO WITH UPPER 80S/NEAR
90.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AREA WILL
HAVE...HOPEFULLY...SOMEWHAT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. CENTRAL U.S.
RIDGE FLATTENS AND ALLOWS A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW TO BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOCATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL MAKE US MORE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOCAL AREA. ALL
OF THE DETAILS OF THIS TIME PERIOD THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WAIT AS
MODELS CANNOT RESOLVE THE SMALL PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL INITIATE
STORMS. THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHRA/TS FOR NW PA/NE OHIO TUESDAY.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT
HANGING OUT IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST OHIO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM/HOT. ON MONDAY AS LONG AS THERE IS NOT ANY CONVECTION OR
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DISRUPTING HEATING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS NW OHIO. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER ACROSS NW PA/NE OH AFTER THAT COLD FRONTS
PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INCH IT'S WAY
NORTHWARD DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL END UP SPENDING MOST OF THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL
EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AIRMASS CHANGE FINALLY.
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT ANY PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN WARMER. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS EXPECTED SOME STRATO CU CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ABOUT THE EAST
2/3 OF THE AREA. CIGS IN THE FAR EAST REMAIN MVFR BUT EXPECT KCAK
TO JUMP TO VFR SHORTLY AND AT KYNG IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
STRATO CU WILL QUICKLY GO AWAY TOWARD EVENING LEAVING JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NW
OH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SRN WI IS
FORECAST TO FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. LIGHT N TO NE
FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND S TO SW ON
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS AND MON/TUE MORNING IN FOG/HAZE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES WILL SHIFT 
TO THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT 
FLOW ON THE LAKE BECOMING W TO SW.  THIS SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY 
INCREASE TILL A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT.  
THE FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.  MAY POSSIBLY NEED A 
SMALL CRAFT FOR EASTERN AREAS JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK 
WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING.  A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH 
THE LAKE FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW.  
MAY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT AT THAT TIME. 

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA