136 FXUS61 KCLE 211920 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 320 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS OHIO FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SINKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. CUMULUS ACROSS THE EAST WILL FADE AWAY THIS EVENING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AROUND 60 TONIGHT IN THE COOLER EASTERN LOCATIONS. LOWER-MID 60S ELSEWHERE...SEASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL LAKES WILL NEAR THE AREA...BUT STALL TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENS. LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TS ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE INTO NW PA/FAR NE OH SUNDAY MORNING. SREF AND WRFNMM WANT TO DEVELOP A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TS INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE THERE. WARMER SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW...WILL GO WITH UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AREA WILL HAVE...HOPEFULLY...SOMEWHAT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE FLATTENS AND ALLOWS A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOCATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MAKE US MORE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOCAL AREA. ALL OF THE DETAILS OF THIS TIME PERIOD THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WAIT AS MODELS CANNOT RESOLVE THE SMALL PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL INITIATE STORMS. THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHRA/TS FOR NW PA/NE OHIO TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT HANGING OUT IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST OHIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM/HOT. ON MONDAY AS LONG AS THERE IS NOT ANY CONVECTION OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DISRUPTING HEATING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS NW OHIO. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE COOLER ACROSS NW PA/NE OH AFTER THAT COLD FRONTS PASSAGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INCH IT'S WAY NORTHWARD DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL END UP SPENDING MOST OF THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AIRMASS CHANGE FINALLY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT ANY PERIOD. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN WARMER. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS EXPECTED SOME STRATO CU CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ABOUT THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA. CIGS IN THE FAR EAST REMAIN MVFR BUT EXPECT KCAK TO JUMP TO VFR SHORTLY AND AT KYNG IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STRATO CU WILL QUICKLY GO AWAY TOWARD EVENING LEAVING JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NW OH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SRN WI IS FORECAST TO FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. LIGHT N TO NE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND S TO SW ON SUNDAY. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS AND MON/TUE MORNING IN FOG/HAZE. && .MARINE... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FLOW ON THE LAKE BECOMING W TO SW. THIS SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TILL A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR EASTERN AREAS JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. MAY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT AT THAT TIME. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...KUBINA