726 
FXUS62 KMHX 161708
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
105 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING 
OVER NRN SECTIONS AS EXPECTED WTIH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BETWEEN FAY 
AND CLT...FCST ON TRACK. 

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...ADDED ISOLATED TSTM/20 POP REST OF MORNING FOR 
EXTREME NW BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/STLT ACTVITY. EXTENDED 30 POPS/SCT 
TSTM TO SRN COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTN. LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT SCT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR NW HALF OF AREA THIS AFTN INTO 
EARLY EVENING WITH WEAK SHRT WV DROPPING IN FROM N-NW PROVIDING 
ADDITIONAL FOCUS IN MOIST/UNSTABLE ATOMS. NO CHANGE TO 30/40 POPS NW 
WITH 20 POPS NEAR COAST FOR PSBL SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS AND 
FCST PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW INLAND STORMS COULD BE 
STRONG TO SVR WITH CAPES NEAR 3000. 

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...EXTENDED 40/20 POPS FROM AFTN UNTIL 10 PM...AS 
SHRT WV MAY ALLOW ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER THIS EVENING. 

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...PER LATEST RUNS OF MOST ALL OF THE 
SHORT-RANGE MODELS...PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING 
TONIGHT...WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z. VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES 
TONIGHT TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT...RANGING FROM 73 TO 78 DEGREES 
WITH THE WARMER READINGS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...SCT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL 
HIGHLIGHT THE TUE/WED TIME PERIOD. A WET PATTERN APPEARS TO BE 
UNFOLDING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE TUE AND INTO WED...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...FOCUSED ALONG
TYPICAL HWY 17 CORRIDOR. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE AROUND
1425M...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 EACH
DAY. 

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC REGIME LATE THIS COMING
WEEK...WITH AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...TRANSLATING TO
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS. TIMING OF SFC COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO EASTERN NC LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME LATE THUR/EARLY FRI. LATEST
16/00Z ECMWF INDICATES SFC COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS EASTERN NC
     WHICH WOULD BRING BOUTS OF THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INC POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...AS THIS SOLN HAS SUPPORT FROM
16/00Z GEM. OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD PUSH PRECIP AXIS JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR KPGV WITH ADDITIONAL 
ACTIVITY TO WEST FROM KFAY TO KCLT...AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION 
ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. VFR 
PREVAILING DURING PERIOD OUTSIDE OF TSTM ACTIVITY. ANY SITES THAT 
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL BE PRONE TO 
PERIOD OF IFR FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE...BUT TOO UNCERTAIN 
TO INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME. 

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 330 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE 
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION 
TUE-WED. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE 
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. BETTER CHANCE 
OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE THUR THROUGH FRI AND 
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE 
NORTH AND STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...POPS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING PER SHORT 
TERM UPDATE DISCUSSION...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. 

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. FCST ON 
TRACK WITH SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND 10-15 KT 
S EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT EXCEPT BUILDING TO 5 FT 
OUTER PORTIONS NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS. 

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 330 AM MON...INLAND TROF/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL 
PRODUCE TYPICAL SW FLOW OVER AREA DURING PERIOD. SW WINDS GENERALLY 
AROUND 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SOME SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT 
POSSIBLE ESP MIDWEEK INTO THUR AS GRADIENT INC JUST A BIT. SEAS WILL 
GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET NEAR SHORE WITH 4 TO 5 FEET FOR THE OUTER 
WATERS. COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS FOR OUTER CENTRAL WATERS WATERS LATE WED 
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRI 
INTO EARLY WEEKEND...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE 
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA WATERS KEEPING A 
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC/JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL