726 FXUS62 KMHX 161708 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 105 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN SECTIONS AS EXPECTED WTIH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BETWEEN FAY AND CLT...FCST ON TRACK. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...ADDED ISOLATED TSTM/20 POP REST OF MORNING FOR EXTREME NW BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/STLT ACTVITY. EXTENDED 30 POPS/SCT TSTM TO SRN COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTN. LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR NW HALF OF AREA THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING WITH WEAK SHRT WV DROPPING IN FROM N-NW PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS IN MOIST/UNSTABLE ATOMS. NO CHANGE TO 30/40 POPS NW WITH 20 POPS NEAR COAST FOR PSBL SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS AND FCST PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW INLAND STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SVR WITH CAPES NEAR 3000. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...EXTENDED 40/20 POPS FROM AFTN UNTIL 10 PM...AS SHRT WV MAY ALLOW ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER THIS EVENING. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...PER LATEST RUNS OF MOST ALL OF THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS...PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z. VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT...RANGING FROM 73 TO 78 DEGREES WITH THE WARMER READINGS NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...SCT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TUE/WED TIME PERIOD. A WET PATTERN APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE TUE AND INTO WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...FOCUSED ALONG TYPICAL HWY 17 CORRIDOR. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE AROUND 1425M...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 EACH DAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC REGIME LATE THIS COMING WEEK...WITH AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...TRANSLATING TO TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS. TIMING OF SFC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NC LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME LATE THUR/EARLY FRI. LATEST 16/00Z ECMWF INDICATES SFC COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS EASTERN NC WHICH WOULD BRING BOUTS OF THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INC POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...AS THIS SOLN HAS SUPPORT FROM 16/00Z GEM. OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD PUSH PRECIP AXIS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR KPGV WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO WEST FROM KFAY TO KCLT...AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. VFR PREVAILING DURING PERIOD OUTSIDE OF TSTM ACTIVITY. ANY SITES THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL BE PRONE TO PERIOD OF IFR FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE...BUT TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/ AS OF 330 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION TUE-WED. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE THUR THROUGH FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...POPS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING PER SHORT TERM UPDATE DISCUSSION...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. FCST ON TRACK WITH SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND 10-15 KT S EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT EXCEPT BUILDING TO 5 FT OUTER PORTIONS NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS. LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/ AS OF 330 AM MON...INLAND TROF/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TYPICAL SW FLOW OVER AREA DURING PERIOD. SW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SOME SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ESP MIDWEEK INTO THUR AS GRADIENT INC JUST A BIT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET NEAR SHORE WITH 4 TO 5 FEET FOR THE OUTER WATERS. COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS FOR OUTER CENTRAL WATERS WATERS LATE WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRI INTO EARLY WEEKEND...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA WATERS KEEPING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...JBM SHORT TERM...CTC/JBM LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JBM/TL MARINE...JBM/TL