402 
FXUS64 KFWD 041135
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
635 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012

.AVIATION...
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS IN WACO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM. A FEW OF THESE LOW 
CLOUDS COULD DRIFT AS FAR NORTH AS THE METROPLEX SITES BUT WILL
HAVE NO IMPACT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/
A FAIRLY NORMAL 4TH OF JULY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS. HEAT
INDICES SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 95 AND 102 AT MID AFTERNOON. DUE TO
INCREASED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...THERE IS AN
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR GRASS FIRES ASSOCIATED WITH CARELESS FIREWORK
ACTIVITY. ALSO...BURN BANS ARE IN AFFECT FOR SOME OF OUR COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI AND EAST KANSAS
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER WEST TO THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. AS IT MOVES WEST OF THE
PLAINS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR EASTERLY WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY MAY DRIFT WEST THROUGH MONDAY
PER THE GFS...OR LINGER OVER LOUISIANA PER THE ECMWF. THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD BRING NORTH TEXAS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH WE CURRENTLY PREFER.
ALSO IN THE MIX IS NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE
FRONT REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND DRIFTING TO
NEAR I-20 AND I-30 ON TUESDAY. THIS CHANGING PATTERN WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCH UPWARD TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN START
INCHING DOWNWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER
HEIGHTS DRIFT LOWER AND CLOUDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE.

AS FOR CONVECTION...DO NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL TODAY AS UPPER
SUPPORT HAS DRIFTED NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE
POPS TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WITH THE RETURN OF TROPICAL
AIR AND UPPER SUPPORT RETURNS.     75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  78  97  78  99 /  10  10   5   5  10 
WACO, TX              97  77  97  75  99 /  10  10   5   5  10 
PARIS, TX             96  74  96  73  97 /  10  10   5   5  10 
DENTON, TX            97  77  96  75  98 /  10  10   5   5  10 
MCKINNEY, TX          97  77  96  75  98 /  10  10   5   5  10 
DALLAS, TX            98  79  98  78 100 /  10  10   5   5  10 
TERRELL, TX           97  76  95  75  97 /  10  10   5   5  10 
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  95  75  97 /  10  10   5   5  10 
TEMPLE, TX            96  73  95  73  97 /  10  10   5   5  10 
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  74  95  73  98 /  10  10   5   5  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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