402 FXUS64 KFWD 041135 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 635 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 .AVIATION... THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS IN WACO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM. A FEW OF THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD DRIFT AS FAR NORTH AS THE METROPLEX SITES BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. 79 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/ A FAIRLY NORMAL 4TH OF JULY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 95 AND 102 AT MID AFTERNOON. DUE TO INCREASED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...THERE IS AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR GRASS FIRES ASSOCIATED WITH CARELESS FIREWORK ACTIVITY. ALSO...BURN BANS ARE IN AFFECT FOR SOME OF OUR COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI AND EAST KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER WEST TO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. AS IT MOVES WEST OF THE PLAINS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR EASTERLY WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY MAY DRIFT WEST THROUGH MONDAY PER THE GFS...OR LINGER OVER LOUISIANA PER THE ECMWF. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING NORTH TEXAS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH WE CURRENTLY PREFER. ALSO IN THE MIX IS NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND DRIFTING TO NEAR I-20 AND I-30 ON TUESDAY. THIS CHANGING PATTERN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCH UPWARD TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN START INCHING DOWNWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER HEIGHTS DRIFT LOWER AND CLOUDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE. AS FOR CONVECTION...DO NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL TODAY AS UPPER SUPPORT HAS DRIFTED NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WITH THE RETURN OF TROPICAL AIR AND UPPER SUPPORT RETURNS. 75 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 98 78 97 78 99 / 10 10 5 5 10 WACO, TX 97 77 97 75 99 / 10 10 5 5 10 PARIS, TX 96 74 96 73 97 / 10 10 5 5 10 DENTON, TX 97 77 96 75 98 / 10 10 5 5 10 MCKINNEY, TX 97 77 96 75 98 / 10 10 5 5 10 DALLAS, TX 98 79 98 78 100 / 10 10 5 5 10 TERRELL, TX 97 76 95 75 97 / 10 10 5 5 10 CORSICANA, TX 97 75 95 75 97 / 10 10 5 5 10 TEMPLE, TX 96 73 95 73 97 / 10 10 5 5 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 98 74 95 73 98 / 10 10 5 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 79/75