114 
FXUS61 KRLX 222355
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
755 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THIS WEEKEND.  STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES 
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT 
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
LAST OF THE CONVECTION PUSHING EAST...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH 02Z ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES RECEIVING RAIN TODAY...BUT STAVED
OFF SOMEWHAT BY LOWER DEWPOINT VALUES ADVECTING IN...PARTICULARLY
IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. A NORTHERLY DRIFT AT 925MB MAY BRING A LOW
CLOUD DECK IN AT BKW TONIGHT NEAR DAWN...LASTING FOR ONLY A FEW
HOURS...AND LIFTING QUICKLY AFTER DAWN. NOT NECESSARILY SOLD ON
THIS COMPLETELY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT TIGHTEN UP THE
T/TD LINE COMPLETELY. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN SFC FRONT PUSHING JUST E OF THE AREA EARLY 
THIS AFTERNOON...AND H85 FRONT JUST CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER...WILL 
MOVE E ACROSS WV THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA NEAR SUN SET AS 
THEY START TO WANE.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY...AROUND 1500 KJ / KG...AND 
FLOW EXIST FOR SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...MOSTLY SPS 
MATERIAL.  MORNING POST FRONTAL CU FORMED LATE MORNING BEHIND SFC 
FRONT...W OF THE MOUNTAINS.  THUS LIKE MODEL IDEA THAT ENOUGH DRYING 
MAKES IT THIS FAR TO PRECLUDE THIS SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...DO EXPECT 
FOG MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS.  OTHERWISE NICE 
DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

DID NOT SEE MUCH ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT TO TEMPERATURES IN LIGHT OF 
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MASS FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SATURDAY...TEMPS AND 
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES 
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BE 
ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF ISOLD CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS 
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 
THE REGION ON MONDAY...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY FOR CERTAIN...BUT SOME OF 
THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. 
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE 
REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOR A MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE 
HEAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN WILL SWITCH TO ONE DOMINATED COOLER...DRIER NORTHWESTERLY 
FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL 
BRING A BREAK IN THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS OF 
LATE...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WORK WEEK 
PROGRESSES...AS UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN RESPONSE TO 
YET ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD 
TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS 
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION IS FINISHED FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE SHOWERS
MAY POP UP NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 02Z OR SO. AVIATION BECOMES
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...DRY AIR ADVECTION...AND
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

GENERALLY HAVE THE SKY CLEARING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM BRINGS A NORTHERLY DRIFT AT THE 925MB
LEVEL AFTER 06Z. THIS THREATENS AN IFR OR WORSE CLOUD DECK OVER
BKW...AND WILL CARRY THIS THROUGH THE EARLY DAWN HOURS. 

AT PKB AND CKB...GUIDANCE BRINGS LOWER DEWPOINTS IN AT THESE
TERMINALS...WITH A 56F DEWPOINT ALREADY AT PKB...WHICH COULD MAKE
SURFACE SATURATION A TAD MORE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE...AND THUS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN FOG SETTING UP. 

AT CRW...EKN AND HTS...WILL TAKE THE FOG TO LIFR TONIGHT.
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/DENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT MAY
VARY/BOUNCE. IFR/LIFR DECK AT BKW MAY NOT FORM.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 06/23/12
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26