114 FXUS61 KRLX 222355 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 755 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THIS WEEKEND. STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPDATE... LAST OF THE CONVECTION PUSHING EAST...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH 02Z ARE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE SOME VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES RECEIVING RAIN TODAY...BUT STAVED OFF SOMEWHAT BY LOWER DEWPOINT VALUES ADVECTING IN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. A NORTHERLY DRIFT AT 925MB MAY BRING A LOW CLOUD DECK IN AT BKW TONIGHT NEAR DAWN...LASTING FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS...AND LIFTING QUICKLY AFTER DAWN. NOT NECESSARILY SOLD ON THIS COMPLETELY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT TIGHTEN UP THE T/TD LINE COMPLETELY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN SFC FRONT PUSHING JUST E OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND H85 FRONT JUST CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER...WILL MOVE E ACROSS WV THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA NEAR SUN SET AS THEY START TO WANE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY...AROUND 1500 KJ / KG...AND FLOW EXIST FOR SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...MOSTLY SPS MATERIAL. MORNING POST FRONTAL CU FORMED LATE MORNING BEHIND SFC FRONT...W OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS LIKE MODEL IDEA THAT ENOUGH DRYING MAKES IT THIS FAR TO PRECLUDE THIS SATURDAY. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT FOG MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS. OTHERWISE NICE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DID NOT SEE MUCH ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT TO TEMPERATURES IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MASS FIELDS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SATURDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF ISOLD CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY FOR CERTAIN...BUT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOR A MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PATTERN WILL SWITCH TO ONE DOMINATED COOLER...DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS OF LATE...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WORK WEEK PROGRESSES...AS UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONVECTION IS FINISHED FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY POP UP NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 02Z OR SO. AVIATION BECOMES SOMEWHAT COMPLEX DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...DRY AIR ADVECTION...AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY HAVE THE SKY CLEARING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM BRINGS A NORTHERLY DRIFT AT THE 925MB LEVEL AFTER 06Z. THIS THREATENS AN IFR OR WORSE CLOUD DECK OVER BKW...AND WILL CARRY THIS THROUGH THE EARLY DAWN HOURS. AT PKB AND CKB...GUIDANCE BRINGS LOWER DEWPOINTS IN AT THESE TERMINALS...WITH A 56F DEWPOINT ALREADY AT PKB...WHICH COULD MAKE SURFACE SATURATION A TAD MORE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE...AND THUS LESS CONFIDENCE IN FOG SETTING UP. AT CRW...EKN AND HTS...WILL TAKE THE FOG TO LIFR TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/DENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY/BOUNCE. IFR/LIFR DECK AT BKW MAY NOT FORM. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 06/23/12 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...26