753 
FXUS62 KILM 070738
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
338 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TODAY. A BRIEF WARM UP WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFFSHORE. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 AM MONDAY...DRY AND SEASONAL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM. HIGH IS NOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS FROM THEIR PRESENT NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. 

MILD AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AND LOWS OF AROUND
60 OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION UNLIKELY...BUT AN
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO FUEL THIS DEVELOPMENT. P/W VALUES WILL RANGE AROUND 1
INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL...TODAY WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN
YESTERDAY AS DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S VERSUS
THE MID 60S EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...DEEPER RETURN FLOW SETS UP THROUGH TUES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE AND NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W-NW. SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT A NICE DAY ON TUES
WITH RIDGE JUST MAKING ITS WAY OFF SHORE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL REMAIN MUCH FARTHER WEST ON TUES WITH LOCAL AREA STILL
IN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE ALOFT. OTHER THAN SOME AFTN CU
DEVELOPING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM CONVECTION WELL
UPSTREAM...EXPECT A DRY DAY ON TUES. PCP WATER VALUES AROUND AN
INCH EARLY MORNING WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY TUES
NIGHT. CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP WILL INCREASE BY TUES NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 80 ON TUES AS 850 TEMPS HOLD STEADY NEAR
13C.

THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS SYSTEM EAST WILL DIG DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING
INTO LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF IT. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP AROUND 1.8
INCHES BY WED AFTN IN A DEEP S-SW FLOW. WINDS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ONLY REACHES ABOUT 25 TO 30 KTS WED AFTN...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW SATURATED COLUMN IN COUNTING ON DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF FRONT. THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER WED AFTN THROUGH WED EVENING. PLENTY
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE MID 60S AND TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. GFS
SHOWING FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND MOVING OFF THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS. 850
TEMPS PEAK JUST ABOVE 14C THROUGH WED AFTN...BUT WILL DROP DOWN
AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH DOWN TO AROUND 10C BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...PLENTY OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING
IN BEHIND COLD FRONT ON THURS. 850 TEMPS DROP OUT DOWN TO 8C BY
THURS AFTN AND WILL FALL AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES THROUGH FRI
WITH READINGS AROUND 6 C BY FRI EVENING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DOWN
TO 50 OR BELOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS COOL AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND CLIMO OR JUST BELOW THURS
THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD ON SAT BEFORE SHIFTING
OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY. WILL FINALLY SEE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN TO
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS THURS THROUGH SAT WITH VALUES ONLY
REBOUNDING CLOSE TO AN INCH BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MODELS IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO 
CEILINGS...WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO RETURN 
TO THE CWA AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE...MVFR AT 
FIRST...LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING. BASED ON BUFKIT...WINDS WILL 
STAY ABOVE 10 KTS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WITH THE EARLY MVFR 
CEILINGS...FOG SEEMS UNLIKELY. MONDAY...CEILINGS WILL HANG IN MOST 
OF THE MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND FINALLY 
SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL 
GIVE US GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BY MIDDAY...VEERING TO EAST 
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE EARLY MORNING FOG/IFR 
TUESDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE 
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE. 
BECOMING VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 AM MONDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
OUR NC WATERS UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. SEA
HEIGHTS PRESENTLY RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT OVER OUR NC WATERS AND 3
TO 5 FT TO THE SOUTH. WINDS STILL WELL IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. 

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS FROM THEIR PRESENT
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE LOW IS DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW GRADIENT TO SLACKEN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT....WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY ABATE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...WHERE THEY WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE VEERING AROUND ON TUES BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE W-NW. SHOULD SEE S-SW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH WED AFTN
INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5
FTERS IN OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE WED
NIGHT NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE W-NW BEHIND FRONT BY THURS MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY... WILL SEE A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL START
OUT 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY THURS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE DIMINISHING OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP FROM 3 TO 4 FT EARLY THURS DOWN TO 3 FT OR
LESS LATE THURS THROUGH FRI AFTN. 

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD FRI THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE
BY LATE SAT JUST NORTH OF LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH SEAS BACK UP A BIT TO 3 TO 4 FT BY LATE FRI INTO SAT. 

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 2:30 AM MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF OUR COASTAL ZONES PLUS NEW HANOVER COUNTY
FOR THE TIDALLY INFLUENCED PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. MODEL
PROJECTIONS SHOW MARGINAL OR JUST SUB-MARGINAL FLOODING
CONDITIONS...BUT PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS MAY PUSH ENOUGH
ADDITIONAL WATER TO SHORE TO TIP THE BALANCE INTO A MINOR FLOODING
SCENARIO. 

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     SCZ054-056.

NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     NCZ106-108-110.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT 
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK