753 FXUS62 KILM 070738 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 338 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TODAY. A BRIEF WARM UP WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFFSHORE. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2:30 AM MONDAY...DRY AND SEASONAL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. HIGH IS NOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AND TONIGHT...GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS FROM THEIR PRESENT NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MILD AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AND LOWS OF AROUND 60 OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION UNLIKELY...BUT AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FUEL THIS DEVELOPMENT. P/W VALUES WILL RANGE AROUND 1 INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL...TODAY WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY AS DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S VERSUS THE MID 60S EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...DEEPER RETURN FLOW SETS UP THROUGH TUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE AND NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W-NW. SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT A NICE DAY ON TUES WITH RIDGE JUST MAKING ITS WAY OFF SHORE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN MUCH FARTHER WEST ON TUES WITH LOCAL AREA STILL IN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE ALOFT. OTHER THAN SOME AFTN CU DEVELOPING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM...EXPECT A DRY DAY ON TUES. PCP WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH EARLY MORNING WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT. CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP WILL INCREASE BY TUES NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 80 ON TUES AS 850 TEMPS HOLD STEADY NEAR 13C. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS SYSTEM EAST WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING INTO LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF IT. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP AROUND 1.8 INCHES BY WED AFTN IN A DEEP S-SW FLOW. WINDS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ONLY REACHES ABOUT 25 TO 30 KTS WED AFTN...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW SATURATED COLUMN IN COUNTING ON DECENT COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF FRONT. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER WED AFTN THROUGH WED EVENING. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 60S AND TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. GFS SHOWING FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVING OFF THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS. 850 TEMPS PEAK JUST ABOVE 14C THROUGH WED AFTN...BUT WILL DROP DOWN AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH DOWN TO AROUND 10C BY END OF PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...PLENTY OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN BEHIND COLD FRONT ON THURS. 850 TEMPS DROP OUT DOWN TO 8C BY THURS AFTN AND WILL FALL AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES THROUGH FRI WITH READINGS AROUND 6 C BY FRI EVENING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DOWN TO 50 OR BELOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND CLIMO OR JUST BELOW THURS THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD ON SAT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY. WILL FINALLY SEE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS THURS THROUGH SAT WITH VALUES ONLY REBOUNDING CLOSE TO AN INCH BY LATE SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MODELS IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS...WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE...MVFR AT FIRST...LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING. BASED ON BUFKIT...WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 10 KTS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WITH THE EARLY MVFR CEILINGS...FOG SEEMS UNLIKELY. MONDAY...CEILINGS WILL HANG IN MOST OF THE MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND FINALLY SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE US GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BY MIDDAY...VEERING TO EAST SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE EARLY MORNING FOG/IFR TUESDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE. BECOMING VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2:30 AM MONDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NC WATERS UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. SEA HEIGHTS PRESENTLY RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT OVER OUR NC WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT TO THE SOUTH. WINDS STILL WELL IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS FROM THEIR PRESENT NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE LOW IS DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW GRADIENT TO SLACKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT....WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY ABATE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...WHERE THEY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE VEERING AROUND ON TUES BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W-NW. SHOULD SEE S-SW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH WED AFTN INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE WED NIGHT NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND FRONT BY THURS MORNING. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY... WILL SEE A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL START OUT 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY THURS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS GRADIENT RELAXES. THE DIMINISHING OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP FROM 3 TO 4 FT EARLY THURS DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS LATE THURS THROUGH FRI AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD FRI THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATE SAT JUST NORTH OF LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS BACK UP A BIT TO 3 TO 4 FT BY LATE FRI INTO SAT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 2:30 AM MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF OUR COASTAL ZONES PLUS NEW HANOVER COUNTY FOR THE TIDALLY INFLUENCED PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW MARGINAL OR JUST SUB-MARGINAL FLOODING CONDITIONS...BUT PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS MAY PUSH ENOUGH ADDITIONAL WATER TO SHORE TO TIP THE BALANCE INTO A MINOR FLOODING SCENARIO. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...REK/DL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK