714 
FXUS64 KBMX 010402
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1102 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.UPDATE...
EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION HAS WANED QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR...WITH A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HUGGING THE ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI
STATE LINE...AND ACTIVITY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING NEAR THE STATE LINE. WILL LIKELY
BE ADJUSTING THE WATCH...CANCELING MOST COUNTIES BEFORE
EXPIRATION TIME. 

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING TS COMPLEX WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST...AND AROUND
60 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...FOG WILL BE THE
OTHER WEATHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER...AT LEAST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL DECKS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S...FOG IS POSSIBLE AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY.

UPDATES ARE OUT. 

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TS COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT
BHM...ANB...AND EET. STORMS ARE GENERALLY ORIENTED AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A BROKEN LINE. HAVE CHOSEN TO USE PREVAILING AND/OR TEMPOS
FOR THIS ACTIVITY. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED...BUT STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT TO TCL BEFORE 
DIMINISHING...OR AT LEAST NOT CONTAINING ANY LIGHTNING. 
HOWEVER...WILL CARRY VCTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER 04Z. AS CLOUD 
COVER SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN TERMINALS. VIS REDUCTIONS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER HIGH 
CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER WINDS DIMINISH. BUT 
GIVEN THE WET SURFACE CONDITIONS POST RAINFALL...EXPECT AT LEAST 
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VIS. 

DO NOT EXPECT RAIN COMPLEX TO AFFECT MGM AND TOI TONIGHT...BUT CLOUD 
COVER SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE AREA. DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF CLOUD DECK 
AND HOW LONG CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD FOG 
DEVELOPMENT COULD BE HAMPERED. THIS AREA DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS 
MORNING..AND PATCHY MVFR FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE. 

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS (COLD POCKET) WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-20...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN AN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS EAST ALABAMA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS...CONSIDERED THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH RECORD VALUES. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE
MAIN CLIMATE SITES ARE LISTED BELOW. A FEW OF THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CAP...SO AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ALOFT TO
PRODUCE A CAPPING INVERSION.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AND BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
NORMALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THESE
SYSTEMS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING AREAL
COVERAGE OF RAIN FOR GIVEN DAY. THE ECMWF MODEL MAINTAINS THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW AND OPENS
IT UP INTO A TROF. BOTH SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN SOME RISK OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY...AND NO BIG VARIATIONS IN POPS FROM
ONE DAY TO THE NEXT. THE REM ANTS OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE EAST
OF AREA BY SATURDAY AND KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

58/ROSE

CLIMATE...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND WILL TRY 
TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP 
QUITE A BIT...EVEN APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS. BELOW ARE THE RECORD 
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL ADD MORE DAYS OVER 
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS IF ANY FURTHER DAYS FORECAST APPEAR TO BE NEAR 
RECORDS. 

SUNDAY APRIL 1

LOCATIONS           RECORD HIGHS    YEAR(S)
-----------------   ------------    -----------
BIRMINGHAM          86              1974
MONTGOMERY          87              1974 
TUSCALOOSA          87              1970/1978
ANNISTON            87              1974

MONDAY APRIL 2

LOCATIONS           RECORD HIGHS    YEAR(S)
-----------------   ------------    -----------
BIRMINGHAM          85              2006
MONTGOMERY          88              2006 
TUSCALOOSA          88              2006 
ANNISTON            87              1978

TUESDAY APRIL 3

LOCATIONS           RECORD HIGHS    YEAR(S)
-----------------   ------------    -----------
BIRMINGHAM          87              1999
MONTGOMERY          87              1999 
TUSCALOOSA          86              1963 
ANNISTON            89              1999

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  85  58  86  59 /  10  20  10  10  10 
ANNISTON    56  87  60  86  60 /  10  20  10  10  10 
BIRMINGHAM  63  87  63  86  63 /  10  20  10  10  10 
TUSCALOOSA  60  88  60  87  61 /  20  20  10  10  10 
CALERA      61  87  62  85  62 /  10  20  10  10  10 
AUBURN      60  85  63  84  63 /  10  20  10  10  10 
MONTGOMERY  61  88  61  87  62 /  20  20  10  10  10 
TROY        59  86  60  86  60 /  20  20  10  10  10 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. 

&&

$$