714 FXUS64 KBMX 010402 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1102 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012 .UPDATE... EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... CONVECTION HAS WANED QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HUGGING THE ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE...AND ACTIVITY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING NEAR THE STATE LINE. WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTING THE WATCH...CANCELING MOST COUNTIES BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING TS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST...AND AROUND 60 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST...FOG WILL BE THE OTHER WEATHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER...AT LEAST MID TO HIGH LEVEL DECKS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...FOG IS POSSIBLE AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. UPDATES ARE OUT. 14 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. TS COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT BHM...ANB...AND EET. STORMS ARE GENERALLY ORIENTED AHEAD OF AND ALONG A BROKEN LINE. HAVE CHOSEN TO USE PREVAILING AND/OR TEMPOS FOR THIS ACTIVITY. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED...BUT STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT TO TCL BEFORE DIMINISHING...OR AT LEAST NOT CONTAINING ANY LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY VCTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER 04Z. AS CLOUD COVER SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. VIS REDUCTIONS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER WINDS DIMINISH. BUT GIVEN THE WET SURFACE CONDITIONS POST RAINFALL...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VIS. DO NOT EXPECT RAIN COMPLEX TO AFFECT MGM AND TOI TONIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE AREA. DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF CLOUD DECK AND HOW LONG CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD BE HAMPERED. THIS AREA DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS MORNING..AND PATCHY MVFR FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE. 14 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS (COLD POCKET) WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-20...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN AN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS EAST ALABAMA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS...CONSIDERED THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH RECORD VALUES. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MAIN CLIMATE SITES ARE LISTED BELOW. A FEW OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CAP...SO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ALOFT TO PRODUCE A CAPPING INVERSION. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS NORMALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SYSTEMS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN FOR GIVEN DAY. THE ECMWF MODEL MAINTAINS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW AND OPENS IT UP INTO A TROF. BOTH SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN SOME RISK OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY...AND NO BIG VARIATIONS IN POPS FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT. THE REM ANTS OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF AREA BY SATURDAY AND KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. 58/ROSE CLIMATE... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND WILL TRY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP QUITE A BIT...EVEN APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS. BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL ADD MORE DAYS OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS IF ANY FURTHER DAYS FORECAST APPEAR TO BE NEAR RECORDS. SUNDAY APRIL 1 LOCATIONS RECORD HIGHS YEAR(S) ----------------- ------------ ----------- BIRMINGHAM 86 1974 MONTGOMERY 87 1974 TUSCALOOSA 87 1970/1978 ANNISTON 87 1974 MONDAY APRIL 2 LOCATIONS RECORD HIGHS YEAR(S) ----------------- ------------ ----------- BIRMINGHAM 85 2006 MONTGOMERY 88 2006 TUSCALOOSA 88 2006 ANNISTON 87 1978 TUESDAY APRIL 3 LOCATIONS RECORD HIGHS YEAR(S) ----------------- ------------ ----------- BIRMINGHAM 87 1999 MONTGOMERY 87 1999 TUSCALOOSA 86 1963 ANNISTON 89 1999 16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 54 85 58 86 59 / 10 20 10 10 10 ANNISTON 56 87 60 86 60 / 10 20 10 10 10 BIRMINGHAM 63 87 63 86 63 / 10 20 10 10 10 TUSCALOOSA 60 88 60 87 61 / 20 20 10 10 10 CALERA 61 87 62 85 62 / 10 20 10 10 10 AUBURN 60 85 63 84 63 / 10 20 10 10 10 MONTGOMERY 61 88 61 87 62 / 20 20 10 10 10 TROY 59 86 60 86 60 / 20 20 10 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$