685 
FXUS63 KDLH 222001
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
301 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER OK TODAY IS
FORECAST TO REACH SW MO BY 12Z FRIDAY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA BY
12Z SATURDAY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW AND INTO THE FA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN BANDS WILL LIFT N
THROUGH THE FA WITH THESE PIECES OF ENERGY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW
UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE FA BRINGING
AN END TO THE RAIN. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN. THE FOG WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY MOVE ONSHORE FROM TIME TO TIME. EVEN
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE UPPER LOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING THE MIDWEST INTO THE ERN US ON 
SUNDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK UPPER S/W SLIDES THROUGH 
S-CNTRL CANADA AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO PARTS 
OF FAR NE MN. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN PLAINS LATE SAT AND 
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. WILL GO 
WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL 
HAVE A COLD AIR MASS JUST TO THE NORTH...AND BRUSH PARTS OF THE 
REGION WITH THE COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE AIR. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 
50S TO THE NORTH ON SUN/MON...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S TO THE 
SOUTH...AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. WILL SEE A RETURN FLOW 
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...WITH SLY WINDS...WARMER AIR...AND ADDITIONAL 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL SEE 
ANOTHER INFLUX OF COOLER AIR WED AND THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE 
WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S. 

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DLH TERMINAL WHERE FOG
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN AND OUT OF THIS LOCALIZED AREA. VSBYS THIS
MORNING IMPROVED SUBSTANTIALLY TO VFR...HOWEVER WITHIN THE LAST 30
MIN HAVE SEEN ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFR VSBYS WITH FG MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST. COULD SEE THIS PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
WITH A WIDE RANGE AND RAPIDLY CHANGING VSBYS. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE A SWATH OF MAINLY -RA MOVING NWD THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING HYR REPORT -RA...WITH VFR CIGS.
RECENT AND CURRENT OBS FURTHER SOUTH WITHIN THE PRECIP BAND ARE
IN GENERAL NOT REALLY REPORTING ANY MAJOR RESTRICTIONS...VFR CIGS
AND PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WILL LIKELY
SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE AND INTO THE HIBBING AREA. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE E/NE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  56  43  57 /  70  50  10  10 
INL  49  61  46  65 /  70  70  10  10 
BRD  53  65  48  69 /  70  40  10  10 
HYR  54  65  47  65 /  70  60  10  20 
ASX  46  54  42  57 /  70  50  10  20 

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TENTINGER