685 FXUS63 KDLH 222001 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 301 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012 .SHORT TERM...THE LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER OK TODAY IS FORECAST TO REACH SW MO BY 12Z FRIDAY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12Z SATURDAY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND INTO THE FA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN BANDS WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE FA WITH THESE PIECES OF ENERGY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE FA BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN. THE FOG WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY MOVE ONSHORE FROM TIME TO TIME. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE UPPER LOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING THE MIDWEST INTO THE ERN US ON SUNDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK UPPER S/W SLIDES THROUGH S-CNTRL CANADA AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO PARTS OF FAR NE MN. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN PLAINS LATE SAT AND SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE A COLD AIR MASS JUST TO THE NORTH...AND BRUSH PARTS OF THE REGION WITH THE COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE AIR. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S TO THE NORTH ON SUN/MON...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH...AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. WILL SEE A RETURN FLOW DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...WITH SLY WINDS...WARMER AIR...AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL SEE ANOTHER INFLUX OF COOLER AIR WED AND THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. && .AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DLH TERMINAL WHERE FOG CONTINUES TO PUSH IN AND OUT OF THIS LOCALIZED AREA. VSBYS THIS MORNING IMPROVED SUBSTANTIALLY TO VFR...HOWEVER WITHIN THE LAST 30 MIN HAVE SEEN ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFR VSBYS WITH FG MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. COULD SEE THIS PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON WITH A WIDE RANGE AND RAPIDLY CHANGING VSBYS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE A SWATH OF MAINLY -RA MOVING NWD THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING HYR REPORT -RA...WITH VFR CIGS. RECENT AND CURRENT OBS FURTHER SOUTH WITHIN THE PRECIP BAND ARE IN GENERAL NOT REALLY REPORTING ANY MAJOR RESTRICTIONS...VFR CIGS AND PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE AND INTO THE HIBBING AREA. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE E/NE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 46 56 43 57 / 70 50 10 10 INL 49 61 46 65 / 70 70 10 10 BRD 53 65 48 69 / 70 40 10 10 HYR 54 65 47 65 / 70 60 10 20 ASX 46 54 42 57 / 70 50 10 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM/AVIATION...TENTINGER