987 
FXUS63 KIND 040723
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
223 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 
THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY 
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO BEGIN THE WEEK WITH MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVING 
BY MIDWEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

WILL RAISE MIN TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH 
WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY DIURNAL COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION IS 
NOT THAT STRONG. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS OUR 
SOUTH AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS OVERNIGHT. 

REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF 
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF OUR 
REGION.   

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE 
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE 
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO 
THE LOW...WITH EXCEPTION OF OP GFS WHICH REMAINS DEEPER AND FURTHER 
NORTH WITH TRACK. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS NON OP GFS MODEL CONSENSUS.

FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A 
DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IN ITS 
WAKE...MODEL SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL. THIS SHOULD ENSURE MUCH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 
WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN 
TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY 
INTO THE EARLY EVENING OPENING UP AND QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST 
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 
CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST 
50 POPS OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A 
SWATH OF STEADIER LIGHT SNOW NORTH LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW TO 
THE NORTH OF THE TRACK. ANY ACCUMS AT THIS POINT ARE LIKELY TO BE 
LESS THAN AN INCH...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY ONLY BE A FEW 
TENTHS OF AN INCH. 

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT WITH BACK END OF THE 
COLD POOL LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH A THERMAL 
TROUGH PRESENT OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...ANTICIPATE HEALTHY CU FIELD 
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL WINDS CAN BACK AND DRIER AIR BUILDS 
IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDING CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 30S WOULD 
ALSO SUPPORT CU DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 
MONDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RIDGING ALOFT 
EXPANDING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. 

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD 
WITH EXPECTATION OF CLOUD COVERAGE INTO MONDAY. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S SUNDAY/MONDAY 
NIGHTS. WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES EARLY TUESDAY SIGNALING THE 
BEGINNING OF THE WARMUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURE AND POP TRENDS BY 
FRIDAY. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF IS NOW NOT AS AMPLIFIED WITH A NORTHERN 
STREAM TROUGH THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WHILE 
THE 00Z GFS AND GEFS ARE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED LEANING A BIT CLOSER 
TO THE EURO. MODELS ALSO NOW ARE CLOSE IN TIMING ON BRINGING A FRONT 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON THURSDAY WITH MODERATE QPF 
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH ON 
FRIDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF BEING NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS PREVIOUS 
RUNS IS NOW NOT AS COLD AS ITS 12Z RUN OR THE 00Z GEM...BUT STILL 
COLDER THAN THE GFS...AND THE CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION EXTENDED 
SEEMED TO GO ALONG WITH THE EURO TREND ON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY. TO WRAP IT UP...RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD 
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL SEE THE MILD 
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO COLD FRONT. THEN...IT APPEARS THE SHOWERS WILL 
BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND 
DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CATEGORY FOR THE MAJORITY
OF TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...A QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
TAF SIGHTS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT...INSERTED MENTION OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THERE COULD BE SOME DETERIORATION
TO MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST RIGHT AT THAT VFR/MVFR MARK FOR
DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND
THEN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW EVENING WITH AFOREMENTIONED 
SYSTEM.


&&



.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD