987 FXUS63 KIND 040723 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 223 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2012 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO BEGIN THE WEEK WITH MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVING BY MIDWEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... WILL RAISE MIN TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY DIURNAL COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION IS NOT THAT STRONG. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS OVERNIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF OUR REGION. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW...WITH EXCEPTION OF OP GFS WHICH REMAINS DEEPER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH TRACK. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS NON OP GFS MODEL CONSENSUS. FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...MODEL SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL. THIS SHOULD ENSURE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING OPENING UP AND QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST 50 POPS OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A SWATH OF STEADIER LIGHT SNOW NORTH LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK. ANY ACCUMS AT THIS POINT ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY ONLY BE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT WITH BACK END OF THE COLD POOL LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH A THERMAL TROUGH PRESENT OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...ANTICIPATE HEALTHY CU FIELD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL WINDS CAN BACK AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDING CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 30S WOULD ALSO SUPPORT CU DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RIDGING ALOFT EXPANDING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER METMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH EXPECTATION OF CLOUD COVERAGE INTO MONDAY. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS. WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES EARLY TUESDAY SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMUP. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURE AND POP TRENDS BY FRIDAY. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF IS NOW NOT AS AMPLIFIED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE 00Z GFS AND GEFS ARE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED LEANING A BIT CLOSER TO THE EURO. MODELS ALSO NOW ARE CLOSE IN TIMING ON BRINGING A FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON THURSDAY WITH MODERATE QPF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF BEING NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS PREVIOUS RUNS IS NOW NOT AS COLD AS ITS 12Z RUN OR THE 00Z GEM...BUT STILL COLDER THAN THE GFS...AND THE CENTRAL REGION INITIALIZATION EXTENDED SEEMED TO GO ALONG WITH THE EURO TREND ON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TO WRAP IT UP...RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL SEE THE MILD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO COLD FRONT. THEN...IT APPEARS THE SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CATEGORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...A QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SIGHTS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT...INSERTED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THERE COULD BE SOME DETERIORATION TO MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST RIGHT AT THAT VFR/MVFR MARK FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW EVENING WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...TDUD