014 
FXUS62 KMHX 280840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE
CRYSTAL COAST SHOULD EXIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALL OF THE
HIGH-RES MODELS SHOULD NO THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 08Z. COLD
FRONT SHOULD PLOW ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD MORNING. STILL ENOUGH
POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (925 MB) TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING LOTS OF
STRATUS OVER THE REGION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF AN APPRECIABLE INVERSION ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THRU SUNRISE IF NOT A FEW HOURS LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM NW WILL PRODUCE 
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL 
NOT BE LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY...THUS SOME AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS 
WARMER THAN TODAY...EXCEPT NRN OBX WHERE NE FLOW WILL HIGHS TO NEAR 
50.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...ACTIVE AND TRICKY LONG TERM FCST AS SEVERAL 
FRONTS/STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT E NC. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH 
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WED AS SFC HIGH PRES RETREATS OFFSHORE TO 
THE EAST. FCST SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE ON WED...THOUGH 
SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO STRENGTHENING H85 
SWRLY LLJ AND WAA COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
AREA...ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE NOSE OF THE 
LLJ IS LOCATED AND NEARER A EASTWARD TRACKING IMPULSE THAT WILL 
SLIDE ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CAT 
FAR NORTH AND TOOK THEM OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOUNDINGS 
INDICATE A LACK OF PRECIP. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH THE 
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING AS NORTHERN 
STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A 
COLD FRONT THROUGH E NC. MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES WED NIGHT AS 
CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES 
TO BE MOST ROBUST IN GENERATING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY... 
AROUND 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 30 KTS WOULD SUPPORT 
A SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER AS INDICATED BY 
MODIFIED SKEW-T WOULD LIMIT ANY SFC BASED SHEAR...AND HENCE ABILITY 
FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO 
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TS VS SEVERE IN THE HWO FOR NOW AS A 
RESULT. 

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THUR MORNING WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES 
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL ACTUALLY BE HIGHER AS LOW 
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAINING 
HIGH. EFFICIENT MIXING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND ALLOW 
TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...POTENTIALLY 
REACHING 80 IN A COUPLE INLAND LOCALES.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE IN 
ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG 
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED 
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. A 
BREAK OCCURS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS BRIEF RIDGING OCCURS AHEAD 
OF IMPENDING COLD FRONT/TROUGH. DECENT LONG RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT ON 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS BROAD TROUGH DIPS SOUTH THROUGH 
CENTRAL CONUS AND PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 
THE REGION SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. STILL SOME MODEL 
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT...SO OPTED 
NOT TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELIES AT THIS TIME...THOUGH MORE CONSISTENT 
ECMWF INDICATES BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS SAT NIGHT. AGAIN STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.

COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMP PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP
TROUGHINESS IS PRESENT...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR COOL DOWNS WILL
BE BRIEF... WITH TEMPS MODERATING ALREADY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND
POOLING OF MOISTURE IS LEADING TO INFLUX OF STRATUS FROM THE WEST.
THESE SHOULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS LIKELY. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING AS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SCOURS OUT A GOOD DEAL OF THIS MOISTURE. 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
AS OF 330 AM TUE...CIGS LOOK TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO E NC. THINK THAT MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO
PESSIMISTIC WITH PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WED EVENING. SW
WINDS WILL GUST FROM 15 TO 20 KT ON WED AFTERNOON...AND TURN
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AGAIN IN THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE. HIGH PRES AND MAINLY SUNNY FOR THUR...WITH INC
CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI AFTERNOON AS A STRONG WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE
INTO E NC SOMETIME LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...CURRENT A RELATIVELY LIGHT SW FLOW ACROSS
THE WATERS WHICH SHOULD BECOME W/NW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEHIND
ONCOMING COLD FRONT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT PRESSURE RISES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO A DECENT SURGE BEGINNING DURING THE MORNING...LEADING TO SCA ON
WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST. 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUE...CENTER OF HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
DELMARVA AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING EAST AND 
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS ON WED WITH SCA 
CONDITIONS LOOKING LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND MAYBE EVEN 
THE SOUNDS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. 
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PEAK LATE WED NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD 
FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS VEER WESTERLY ON THUR AND DIMINISH BELOW SCA 
THRESHOLD...THOUGH REMAIN RATHER GUSTY AROUND 20 KT. PROGRESSIVE 
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRES AREA DOMINATING ON FRI 
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT 
FOR THE WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIKELY FOR THE 
WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...JBM/CTC/TL