014 FXUS62 KMHX 280840 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 340 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST SHOULD EXIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALL OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOULD NO THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 08Z. COLD FRONT SHOULD PLOW ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD MORNING. STILL ENOUGH POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (925 MB) TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING LOTS OF STRATUS OVER THE REGION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN APPRECIABLE INVERSION ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THRU SUNRISE IF NOT A FEW HOURS LONGER. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM NW WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL NOT BE LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY...THUS SOME AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS WARMER THAN TODAY...EXCEPT NRN OBX WHERE NE FLOW WILL HIGHS TO NEAR 50. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUE...ACTIVE AND TRICKY LONG TERM FCST AS SEVERAL FRONTS/STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT E NC. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WED AS SFC HIGH PRES RETREATS OFFSHORE TO THE EAST. FCST SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE ON WED...THOUGH SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO STRENGTHENING H85 SWRLY LLJ AND WAA COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS LOCATED AND NEARER A EASTWARD TRACKING IMPULSE THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CAT FAR NORTH AND TOOK THEM OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LACK OF PRECIP. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH E NC. MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES WED NIGHT AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE MOST ROBUST IN GENERATING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY... AROUND 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 30 KTS WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER AS INDICATED BY MODIFIED SKEW-T WOULD LIMIT ANY SFC BASED SHEAR...AND HENCE ABILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TS VS SEVERE IN THE HWO FOR NOW AS A RESULT. FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THUR MORNING WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL ACTUALLY BE HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAINING HIGH. EFFICIENT MIXING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...POTENTIALLY REACHING 80 IN A COUPLE INLAND LOCALES. FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. A BREAK OCCURS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS BRIEF RIDGING OCCURS AHEAD OF IMPENDING COLD FRONT/TROUGH. DECENT LONG RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS BROAD TROUGH DIPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS AND PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT...SO OPTED NOT TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELIES AT THIS TIME...THOUGH MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF INDICATES BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS SAT NIGHT. AGAIN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMP PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP TROUGHINESS IS PRESENT...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR COOL DOWNS WILL BE BRIEF... WITH TEMPS MODERATING ALREADY BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/... AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND POOLING OF MOISTURE IS LEADING TO INFLUX OF STRATUS FROM THE WEST. THESE SHOULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING AS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING FLOW SCOURS OUT A GOOD DEAL OF THIS MOISTURE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUE...CIGS LOOK TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO E NC. THINK THAT MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WED EVENING. SW WINDS WILL GUST FROM 15 TO 20 KT ON WED AFTERNOON...AND TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AGAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. HIGH PRES AND MAINLY SUNNY FOR THUR...WITH INC CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI AFTERNOON AS A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO E NC SOMETIME LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...CURRENT A RELATIVELY LIGHT SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WHICH SHOULD BECOME W/NW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEHIND ONCOMING COLD FRONT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT PRESSURE RISES OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DECENT SURGE BEGINNING DURING THE MORNING...LEADING TO SCA ON WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ AS OF 330 AM TUE...CENTER OF HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING EAST AND CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS ON WED WITH SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND MAYBE EVEN THE SOUNDS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PEAK LATE WED NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS VEER WESTERLY ON THUR AND DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLD...THOUGH REMAIN RATHER GUSTY AROUND 20 KT. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRES AREA DOMINATING ON FRI BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150- 152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...CTC/TL MARINE...JBM/CTC/TL