738 
FXUS62 KMHX 300250
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD FROM THE GULF STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM SUNDAY...WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRES IS BEGINNING TO SLIDE E 
OF CST. WSW WINDS INCREASED OVER NRN OBX PAST HR AND TEMPS JUMPED 
NEARLY 10 DEG. AS WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THINK LIGHT WSW WINDS 
WILL DEVELOP FURTHER S NEXT CPL HOURS THEN AFTER FROPA WILL HAVE WNW 
WINDS. EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT SRN OBX AS BRZ PICKS UP. OVER 
INLAND SITES TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP MUCH MORE WITH UPR 20S TO 
LOWER 30S LIKELY. DESPITE FROPA EXPECT CLR SKIES TO CONT AS ATMS 
REMAINS VERY DRY. 


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BUILD IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST US LIFTS
OUT. THICKNESS LEVELS WILL BE INCREASE AND TEMPS WILL RANGE
MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE OBX AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THROUGH THEN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN US...WITH HIGH
MOVING OFFSHORE WED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SW FLOW
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED...GENERALLY MID TO
UPPER 60S. SOME SPOTS COULD HIT 70 DEGREES WED AFTERNOON. DRY WX
CONTINUES THROUGH WED. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS DEVELOPING FOR A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO DROP INTO EASTERN NC WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL GET AND AMT OF MOISTURE. LONG RANGE MODELS SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THUS HAVE BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED TO TREND PRIMARILY
WITH HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. HPC PROGS SHOW
LOW PRESSURE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TN/OH VALLEY FRI MOVING THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
COOLER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. 

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS ASSOCIATED. FORECAST TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS LOOK LARGE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EVEN
IF WINDS DECOUPLE WHICH THEY LIKELY WILL WEST OF HIGHWAY 17.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THU INTO FRI
WITH NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE CST WITH 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS. WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS 
LATER...LIMITED CAA BEHIND BNDRY AND WILL CONT PREV FCST OF WNW 
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST WTRS AFTER FROPA. SEAS MOSTLY 
2 TO 4 FT PER OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TWRD THE CST AGAIN 
MON AFTN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. 

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN US
THROUGH TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW RETURN FLOW
WILL CONTINUE WED. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WED AS HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N...WITH WINDS
LIKELY INCREASING TO 15-20KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5FT.
CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BUT HAVE CAPPED
BELOW FOR NOW. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE WATERS
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...THOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR SOUTH
FRONT WILL GET. AT THIS TIME DUE TO CONFIDENCE FOR THU/FRI HAVE
TRENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC PRIMARILY...KEEPING W/NW
FLOW 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT. 

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...RF/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/JME/CQD
MARINE...RF/BM/CQD