738 FXUS62 KMHX 300250 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 950 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GULF STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 PM SUNDAY...WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRES IS BEGINNING TO SLIDE E OF CST. WSW WINDS INCREASED OVER NRN OBX PAST HR AND TEMPS JUMPED NEARLY 10 DEG. AS WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THINK LIGHT WSW WINDS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER S NEXT CPL HOURS THEN AFTER FROPA WILL HAVE WNW WINDS. EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT SRN OBX AS BRZ PICKS UP. OVER INLAND SITES TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP MUCH MORE WITH UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S LIKELY. DESPITE FROPA EXPECT CLR SKIES TO CONT AS ATMS REMAINS VERY DRY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES WILL BUILD IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST US LIFTS OUT. THICKNESS LEVELS WILL BE INCREASE AND TEMPS WILL RANGE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE OBX AREA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THROUGH THEN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN US...WITH HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE WED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SW FLOW SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME SPOTS COULD HIT 70 DEGREES WED AFTERNOON. DRY WX CONTINUES THROUGH WED. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS DEVELOPING FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO DROP INTO EASTERN NC WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GET AND AMT OF MOISTURE. LONG RANGE MODELS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THUS HAVE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED TO TREND PRIMARILY WITH HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. HPC PROGS SHOW LOW PRESSURE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TN/OH VALLEY FRI MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AT THIS TIME LOOKS COOLER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/ AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS ASSOCIATED. FORECAST TEMPERATURE- DEWPOINT SPREADS LOOK LARGE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EVEN IF WINDS DECOUPLE WHICH THEY LIKELY WILL WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUN...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THU INTO FRI WITH NEXT SYSTEM. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 950 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE CST WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS. WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS LATER...LIMITED CAA BEHIND BNDRY AND WILL CONT PREV FCST OF WNW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST WTRS AFTER FROPA. SEAS MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT PER OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TWRD THE CST AGAIN MON AFTN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN US THROUGH TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE WED. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WED AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N...WITH WINDS LIKELY INCREASING TO 15-20KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5FT. CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BUT HAVE CAPPED BELOW FOR NOW. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...THOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT WILL GET. AT THIS TIME DUE TO CONFIDENCE FOR THU/FRI HAVE TRENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC PRIMARILY...KEEPING W/NW FLOW 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BM NEAR TERM...RF/BM SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...RF/JME/CQD MARINE...RF/BM/CQD