078 
FXUS62 KILM 261637
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1100 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY SEAWARD 
TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE 
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE WINDY LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL FILL 
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHARPLY 
DROPPING BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...BAND OF VERY LIGHT RAIN ASSOC WITH SURFACE 
WARM FRONT NOW LIFTED TO THE NORTH AND LARGELY DISSIPATED. STILL 
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP 
OFFSHORE AND ADVECT INTO THE CAPE FEAR COASTAL COUNTIES BY ABOUT 
21Z. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND NEWER RUNS OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE BEFORE 
MAKING ANY POSSIBLE FORECAST CHANGES. 


AS OF 6 AM THURSDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUD COVER HAS EASED 
THE DENSE FOG SITUATION AND SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL STILL BE AROUND EARLY 
THIS MORNING...THE LOW VISIBILITIES THAT WE EXPERIENCED DURING THE 
NIGHT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 
RETURN.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR N WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA
THIS MORNING. DEEP SW FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF
AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE
FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...REACHING THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS EVE AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND FRI. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW PRONOUNCED
BAGGINESS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SC AND WESTERN NC AND
A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS A
VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES. THE BULK OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DO TRACK ALONG AND W OF THE
APPALACHIANS DOWN AROUND OUR LATITUDE. NONETHELESS...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI MORNING. A
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS PROBABLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. INSTABILITY
WILL BE LACK LUSTER AS WILL LAPSE RATES. THE FLOW SHOULD BE
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THE TIME THE CONVECTION REACHES THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...A SW JET
OF 50+ KTS AT 1500-2000 FT DOES INCREASE THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL INCLUDE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING...BUT HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION. DID INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL START THE DAY BEFORE ERODING/ 
DISSIPATING DURING THE MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND 
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AGAIN AT LOWER 
LEVELS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF 
PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN WARM AND 
MOISTENING AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO ABOUT AN 
INCH TODAY AND TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES TONIGHT. WILL THEREFORE 
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL POPS TODAY AND THEN RAMP THEM UP 
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS 
ALWAYS A DIFFICULT PROPOSITION...ESPECIALLY IN FAST MOVING 
CONVECTIVE REGIMES. THE TIME OF DAY ADDS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MENTIONED 
ABOVE...WIDESPREAD ONE-QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE ALTHOUGH 
AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD ECLIPSE THE 
HIGHS OF WED...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. 
TEMPS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO FALL TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD DROP TO THE 
DEWPOINT AS THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION REACHES THE 
AREA. OUR LOWS WILL BE ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE JAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...0000 UTC MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800 UTC
FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL CHANGES TO POP FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
TREND DOWN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN SEE TEXT WITH THE USUAL CAVEATS OF
INSTABILITY THIS TIME OF YEAR. I WILL SAY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
HAVE PICKED UP DRAMATICALLY THIS CYCLE WITH ALMOST 60 KNOTS AT 925
TO 850MB. THIS IN ITSELF WILL MAKE THINGS A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING. MODELS HAVE WARMED DRAMATICALLY WITH THIS CYCLE AS
WELL WITH 70S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE SUN
BREAKING OUT AND MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED UP WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...A RATHER UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED FORECAST
REMAINS INTACT AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM MODEST
EAST COAST TROUGHING TO A FAIRLY FAST ZONAL FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN OFF THE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. MONDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLDEST BUT TUESDAY IS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO POSSIBLY MITIGATED
BY MID LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...11U-3.9 SATELLITE SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS OVER THE 
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. THINK THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL SEE 
INTERMITTENT IFR FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE 
LOW CEILINGS EITHER ADVECTING OUT OF THE REGION OR DISSIPATING. LOOK 
FOR MAINLY A VFR STRATA CU CEILING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH 
WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CEILINGS 
WILL AGAIN LOWER TO IFR WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING TO 
THE NORTHEAST ON AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE 
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TO ROLL IN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE 
INLAND TERMINALS...WITH THE PRECIP REACHING THE COAST BY 09Z. STRONG 
SPEED SHEER COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE 
CONVECTION...THUNDER COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND INTERMITTENT IFR FRIDAY 
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE WILL LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRI MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED AS A SW LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50+ KT LATE TONIGHT AND 
FRI MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL NOT MIX EFFICIENTLY TO THE SURFACE 
GIVEN THE COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPS. NONETHELESS...SOME OF THESE HIGHER 
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND AS THE 
FRONT NEARS...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING 
THIS EVE AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF FRI. THE STRONGEST WINDS... 
SUSTAINED TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE 
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD STEADILY TONIGHT AND SHOULD 
PEAK IN 6 TO 9 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER 
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. SEAS AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY MAY REACH 
10 OR 11 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
RAPIDLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WINDS JUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS AND 1 PM FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.
BEYOND THE BUSY FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH QUICKLY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE ALMOST IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS WITH
WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW INITIALLY
WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE
OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE FROM AROUND TEN
KNOTS TO 15-20 KNOTS. MONDAY WILL SEE A DECREASE IN WINDS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE TREND OF WINDS
WITH BENIGN VALUES EARLY AND LATE HIGHER LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE. 
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST     
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY 
     FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43