078 FXUS62 KILM 261637 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1100 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY SEAWARD TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE WINDY LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHARPLY DROPPING BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...BAND OF VERY LIGHT RAIN ASSOC WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW LIFTED TO THE NORTH AND LARGELY DISSIPATED. STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND ADVECT INTO THE CAPE FEAR COASTAL COUNTIES BY ABOUT 21Z. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND NEWER RUNS OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY POSSIBLE FORECAST CHANGES. AS OF 6 AM THURSDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUD COVER HAS EASED THE DENSE FOG SITUATION AND SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL STILL BE AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING...THE LOW VISIBILITIES THAT WE EXPERIENCED DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR N WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA THIS MORNING. DEEP SW FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...REACHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS EVE AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND FRI. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW PRONOUNCED BAGGINESS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SC AND WESTERN NC AND A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES. THE BULK OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DO TRACK ALONG AND W OF THE APPALACHIANS DOWN AROUND OUR LATITUDE. NONETHELESS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS PROBABLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACK LUSTER AS WILL LAPSE RATES. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THE TIME THE CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...A SW JET OF 50+ KTS AT 1500-2000 FT DOES INCREASE THE RISK FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL INCLUDE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING...BUT HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. DID INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL START THE DAY BEFORE ERODING/ DISSIPATING DURING THE MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AGAIN AT LOWER LEVELS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN WARM AND MOISTENING AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO ABOUT AN INCH TODAY AND TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES TONIGHT. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL POPS TODAY AND THEN RAMP THEM UP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS ALWAYS A DIFFICULT PROPOSITION...ESPECIALLY IN FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE REGIMES. THE TIME OF DAY ADDS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MENTIONED ABOVE...WIDESPREAD ONE-QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD ECLIPSE THE HIGHS OF WED...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. TEMPS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO FALL TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD DROP TO THE DEWPOINT AS THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA. OUR LOWS WILL BE ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE JAN. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...0000 UTC MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800 UTC FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL CHANGES TO POP FORECAST OTHER THAN TO TREND DOWN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN SEE TEXT WITH THE USUAL CAVEATS OF INSTABILITY THIS TIME OF YEAR. I WILL SAY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE PICKED UP DRAMATICALLY THIS CYCLE WITH ALMOST 60 KNOTS AT 925 TO 850MB. THIS IN ITSELF WILL MAKE THINGS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING. MODELS HAVE WARMED DRAMATICALLY WITH THIS CYCLE AS WELL WITH 70S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE SUN BREAKING OUT AND MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED UP WITH LOWS AND HIGHS SATURDAY AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...A RATHER UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS INTACT AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM MODEST EAST COAST TROUGHING TO A FAIRLY FAST ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. MONDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST BUT TUESDAY IS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO POSSIBLY MITIGATED BY MID LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS MORNINGS FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 12Z...11U-3.9 SATELLITE SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. THINK THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL SEE INTERMITTENT IFR FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE LOW CEILINGS EITHER ADVECTING OUT OF THE REGION OR DISSIPATING. LOOK FOR MAINLY A VFR STRATA CU CEILING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CEILINGS WILL AGAIN LOWER TO IFR WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING TO THE NORTHEAST ON AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TO ROLL IN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS...WITH THE PRECIP REACHING THE COAST BY 09Z. STRONG SPEED SHEER COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION...THUNDER COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND INTERMITTENT IFR FRIDAY MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRI MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A SW LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50+ KT LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL NOT MIX EFFICIENTLY TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPS. NONETHELESS...SOME OF THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AND AS THE FRONT NEARS...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING THIS EVE AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF FRI. THE STRONGEST WINDS... SUSTAINED TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD STEADILY TONIGHT AND SHOULD PEAK IN 6 TO 9 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. SEAS AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY MAY REACH 10 OR 11 FT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS RAPIDLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS JUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY. SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS AND 1 PM FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. BEYOND THE BUSY FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH QUICKLY AND SATURDAY SHOULD SEE ALMOST IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW INITIALLY WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE FROM AROUND TEN KNOTS TO 15-20 KNOTS. MONDAY WILL SEE A DECREASE IN WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE TREND OF WINDS WITH BENIGN VALUES EARLY AND LATE HIGHER LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43