636 
FXUS64 KLUB 202144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT WAS FOUND MAKING A HASTY MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF 
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE...ROUGHLY 1-2 HOURS AHEAD OF 12Z GUIDANCE. 
AT THIS RATE LUBBOCK SHOULD SEE FROPA AROUND 01Z. AHEAD OF THIS 
FRONT...BRISK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT ADIABATIC WARMING HAVE 
PUSHED TEMPS 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT TO 
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT A FEW WTM SITES IN THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. 

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE SWRN EXTENSION 
OF A MODIFIED CP SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. WITH 
ONLY A NARROW CIRRUS DECK AND LIGHT WINDS...WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING 
TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING 20S AND 30S ARE ALREADY 
POISED IN CENTRAL KS.

COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MAKE GRADUAL HEADWAY EAST ALONG THE RED 
RIVER TOMORROW EXPOSING MUCH OF THE CWA TO RAPID LEE TROUGH 
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN NM. THIS TROUGH WILL SERVE TO BOOST SWLY 
WINDS MOSTLY ACROSS OUR NWRN COUNTIES WHERE THE WARMEST MAX TEMPS 
WILL TAKE AIM. OFF THE CAPROCK...HIGHS NEAR CLIMO LOOK REASONABLE 
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
PLENTY OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. PRIMARY CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
A POTENTIAL HIGH/DAMAGING WIND...BLOWING DUST...FIRE WEATHER EVENT
SUNDAY. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A
CLOSED LOW BY MID WEEK.

SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WRT THE PASSAGE
OF A SHARP POSITIVELY TILTED UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH APPEARS PROGRESSIVE...WITH A PASSAGE AROUND THE MIDDAY
HOURS. THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS/NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THEN...WITH A 100+KT 500 MB
JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED 50-60KT 700 MB WIND MAXIMUM TAKING NEAR
DIRECT AIM ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. LOCAL STUDIES WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THESE WIND FIELDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR HIGH WINDS /SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER WITH SEVERE GUSTS/ AND A NOTABLE DUST
PLUME. ONLY COMPLICATING FACTOR ATTM IS THE APPARENT EARLY PASSAGE
OF A PAC FRONT BY MID/LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY HELP TO LIMIT THE DEPTH OF
MIXING AND HENCE LIMIT DOWNWARD TRANSPOT OF SAID WINDS. HOWEVER
CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR. ALSO...
MODELS HINT THAT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY FILL IN NEAR THE SYSTEM/S
COLD POOL OVER THE PANHANDLE/NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE SCENARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED GRIDDED WINDS TO
HIGH WIND CATEGORIES AND WILL ESCALATE WORDING IN THE HAZARD
PRODUCTS. IF CURRENT NWP TRENDS PERSIST...A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES.

THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A DEEPENING/CUTOFF UA LOW
WHICH WILL DIG OVER NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY EJECT
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL
TRENDS SEEM TO BE TOWARD A SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAIN VALID. HAVE EXTENDED THE PERIOD OF MENTIONABLE GRIDDED POPS
TO INCLUDE 12Z TUE-00Z THU...AND FURTHER EXPANSION MAYBE REQUIRED.
HAVE ADDITIONALLY MAINTAINED A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ON THE 
CAPROCK WHERE WINDS HAVE CONSISTENTLY EXCEEDED 20 MPH. VERY LOW RH 
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE COMMONPLACE HERE AND CRITICAL 
CONDITIONS WILL NOT ABATE UNTIL AROUND 6 PM ONCE WINDS CURTAIL TO 
LESS THAN 20 MPH. RH VALUES WILL THEN QUICKLY RECOVER BEHIND A NW-SE 
ORIENTED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE FROM A DIMMITT TO PADUCAH LINE AT 
330 PM TO A MULESHOE TO LUBBOCK TO JAYTON LINE AROUND 6 PM. 
NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 20 MPH OR 
SO...BUT WILL RAPIDLY FALL OFF THIS EVENING TO AOB 10 MPH.

SATURDAY...AN ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER IS 
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY OVER THE FAR NWRN SOUTH PLAINS AND SWRN 
PANHANDLE WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RISE TO NEAR 20 MPH BY MIDDAY. 
GREATEST CAVEAT FOR A MORE DEFINITIVE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE 
MARGINAL AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AOA 20 PERCENT. THIS IS DUE TO SWLY 
WINDS SOURCING SOME OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AND COOL POST-FRONTAL AIR
BEHIND THIS EVENING/S COLD FRONT.

DAY 3...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES APPEAR
TO HELP MODIFY DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO MARGINALLY CRITICAL VALUES
AROUND 15 PERCENT. THIS MAY HELP MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES...BUT
AT LEAST WIDESPREAD/PROLONGED LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  66  38  54  26 /   0   0   0  10   0 
TULIA         27  62  39  57  26 /   0   0   0  10   0 
PLAINVIEW     27  63  39  58  27 /   0   0   0  10   0 
LEVELLAND     28  64  40  60  29 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LUBBOCK       28  63  40  60  29 /   0   0   0  10   0 
DENVER CITY   29  64  41  63  31 /   0   0   0   0   0 
BROWNFIELD    29  64  40  63  30 /   0   0   0   0   0 
CHILDRESS     25  55  37  64  29 /   0   0   0  10   0 
SPUR          26  59  38  65  31 /   0   0   0   0   0 
ASPERMONT     27  56  39  69  33 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>042.

&&

$$

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