636 FXUS64 KLUB 202144 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 344 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012 .SHORT TERM... COLD FRONT WAS FOUND MAKING A HASTY MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE...ROUGHLY 1-2 HOURS AHEAD OF 12Z GUIDANCE. AT THIS RATE LUBBOCK SHOULD SEE FROPA AROUND 01Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BRISK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT ADIABATIC WARMING HAVE PUSHED TEMPS 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT A FEW WTM SITES IN THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE SWRN EXTENSION OF A MODIFIED CP SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. WITH ONLY A NARROW CIRRUS DECK AND LIGHT WINDS...WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING 20S AND 30S ARE ALREADY POISED IN CENTRAL KS. COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MAKE GRADUAL HEADWAY EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TOMORROW EXPOSING MUCH OF THE CWA TO RAPID LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN NM. THIS TROUGH WILL SERVE TO BOOST SWLY WINDS MOSTLY ACROSS OUR NWRN COUNTIES WHERE THE WARMEST MAX TEMPS WILL TAKE AIM. OFF THE CAPROCK...HIGHS NEAR CLIMO LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH. && .LONG TERM... PLENTY OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. PRIMARY CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND A POTENTIAL HIGH/DAMAGING WIND...BLOWING DUST...FIRE WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A CLOSED LOW BY MID WEEK. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WRT THE PASSAGE OF A SHARP POSITIVELY TILTED UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH APPEARS PROGRESSIVE...WITH A PASSAGE AROUND THE MIDDAY HOURS. THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS/NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THEN...WITH A 100+KT 500 MB JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED 50-60KT 700 MB WIND MAXIMUM TAKING NEAR DIRECT AIM ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. LOCAL STUDIES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THESE WIND FIELDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR HIGH WINDS /SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER WITH SEVERE GUSTS/ AND A NOTABLE DUST PLUME. ONLY COMPLICATING FACTOR ATTM IS THE APPARENT EARLY PASSAGE OF A PAC FRONT BY MID/LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY HELP TO LIMIT THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HENCE LIMIT DOWNWARD TRANSPOT OF SAID WINDS. HOWEVER CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR. ALSO... MODELS HINT THAT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY FILL IN NEAR THE SYSTEM/S COLD POOL OVER THE PANHANDLE/NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...FURTHER COMPLICATING THE SCENARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED GRIDDED WINDS TO HIGH WIND CATEGORIES AND WILL ESCALATE WORDING IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS. IF CURRENT NWP TRENDS PERSIST...A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A DEEPENING/CUTOFF UA LOW WHICH WILL DIG OVER NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY EJECT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO BE TOWARD A SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN VALID. HAVE EXTENDED THE PERIOD OF MENTIONABLE GRIDDED POPS TO INCLUDE 12Z TUE-00Z THU...AND FURTHER EXPANSION MAYBE REQUIRED. HAVE ADDITIONALLY MAINTAINED A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. && .FIRE WEATHER... TONIGHT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE WINDS HAVE CONSISTENTLY EXCEEDED 20 MPH. VERY LOW RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE COMMONPLACE HERE AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL NOT ABATE UNTIL AROUND 6 PM ONCE WINDS CURTAIL TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. RH VALUES WILL THEN QUICKLY RECOVER BEHIND A NW-SE ORIENTED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE FROM A DIMMITT TO PADUCAH LINE AT 330 PM TO A MULESHOE TO LUBBOCK TO JAYTON LINE AROUND 6 PM. NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 20 MPH OR SO...BUT WILL RAPIDLY FALL OFF THIS EVENING TO AOB 10 MPH. SATURDAY...AN ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY OVER THE FAR NWRN SOUTH PLAINS AND SWRN PANHANDLE WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RISE TO NEAR 20 MPH BY MIDDAY. GREATEST CAVEAT FOR A MORE DEFINITIVE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AOA 20 PERCENT. THIS IS DUE TO SWLY WINDS SOURCING SOME OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AND COOL POST-FRONTAL AIR BEHIND THIS EVENING/S COLD FRONT. DAY 3...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG WINDS SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO HELP MODIFY DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO MARGINALLY CRITICAL VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. THIS MAY HELP MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES...BUT AT LEAST WIDESPREAD/PROLONGED LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 27 66 38 54 26 / 0 0 0 10 0 TULIA 27 62 39 57 26 / 0 0 0 10 0 PLAINVIEW 27 63 39 58 27 / 0 0 0 10 0 LEVELLAND 28 64 40 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 28 63 40 60 29 / 0 0 0 10 0 DENVER CITY 29 64 41 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 29 64 40 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 25 55 37 64 29 / 0 0 0 10 0 SPUR 26 59 38 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 27 56 39 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>042. && $$ 93/20