732 
FXUS64 KMEG 200017
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 PM CST THU JAN 19 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND ADJUST AREAS OF
SPRINKLES. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY STALL LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO
FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WERE FILTERING
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE
MUCH COLDER BY MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UP AND OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE LIFT WAS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES...AND THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. THERE
MAY ALSO BE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTH ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR. FURTHER NORTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING BUT EXPECTING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO WORK IN AND
PREVENT PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
EVENING. IF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE ENHANCED THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THESE NORTHERN AREAS. UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED IF
THIS OCCURS...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME. 

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE
PROVIDED THROUGH THE EVENING IF REQUIRED.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST THU JAN 19 2012/

DISCUSSION...

A MILDER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH 60 DEGREES AT THE MEMPHIS
AIRPORT. ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A FEW
READINGS JUST NOW HITTING 50. WINDS HAVE BEEN FROM THE SOUTH AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE DELTA REGION.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. GULF STRATUS
MOVING UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COVERING
MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIVER. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRATUS. THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS NEW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FORMS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PARK NEAR INTERSTATE
FORTY OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY WITH A WIDESPREAD OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WITH WARMER MID TO MAYBE UPPER 60S IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. BEST RAIN CHANCES TO INCLUDE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEST SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
IS IN A SEE TEXT FROM SPC FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT BELIEVE
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER MAY SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS AS LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C COMBINED WITH A 40 TO 45 KT
LLJ ARE IN ENVIRONMENT OF AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG CAPE. WINDS AND
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND HANG OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY LATE SATURDAY...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY
IN THE AREA THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME DRYING ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DROP
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THIS SCENARIO
WITH MOST OF THE REGION SEEING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
THE GFS STILL ABOUT SIX HOURS FASTER IN TIMING. THE SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO BE MUCH DEEPER WITH A TREND FOR A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA. ON THE SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL QUICKLY SWING BACK TO THE NORTH INTO THE CORN BELT
AS A 995MB SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM KANSAS TO ILLINOIS. STRONG
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO 60S
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY. WILL ADD MENTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IN
THE UPCOMING HWO. FOR NOW LAPSE RATES DON'T APPEAR TO BE AS
IMPRESSIVE NEAR 6C...HOWEVER THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT APPEARS TO BE
MUCH STRONGER. THUS MULTICELL LINES WITH BOWING SEGMENTS APPEARS
TO BE THE FAVORABLE STORM MODE/THREAT. RAIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND AN UPPER RIDGE
QUICK TO MOVE IN. THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE
SAME WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL
BE MUCH DRIER HOWEVER. WIND SPEEDS AND AFTERNOON RHS IN THE 25 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE MAY CAUSE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE JET PATTERN NEXT WEEK SHOWS A SPLIT
FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW GETS PINCHED OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MIDSOUTH WILL GET
CLIPPED BY THIS SHORTWAVE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN BACK INTO THE
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY AT KMEM BUT SHOULD BECOME VFR
LATER THIS EVENING WHILE CEILINGS AT KTUP WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS.
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD DROP TO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE FRIDAY BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. 

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  40  62  47  49 /  10  20  60  40 
MKL  33  58  44  46 /  10  20  60  40 
JBR  32  50  38  42 /   0  20  60  30 
TUP  45  65  54  56 /  10  20  70  50 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$