732 FXUS64 KMEG 200017 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 617 PM CST THU JAN 19 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND ADJUST AREAS OF SPRINKLES. && .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WERE FILTERING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE MUCH COLDER BY MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE LIFT WAS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES...AND THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. THERE MAY ALSO BE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTH ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FURTHER NORTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING BUT EXPECTING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO WORK IN AND PREVENT PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING. IF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE ENHANCED THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THESE NORTHERN AREAS. UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED IF THIS OCCURS...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED THROUGH THE EVENING IF REQUIRED. JLH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST THU JAN 19 2012/ DISCUSSION... A MILDER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH 60 DEGREES AT THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT. ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A FEW READINGS JUST NOW HITTING 50. WINDS HAVE BEEN FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE DELTA REGION. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. GULF STRATUS MOVING UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COVERING MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIVER. SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRATUS. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS NEW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PARK NEAR INTERSTATE FORTY OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY WITH A WIDESPREAD OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WITH WARMER MID TO MAYBE UPPER 60S IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI. BEST RAIN CHANCES TO INCLUDE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEST SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH IS IN A SEE TEXT FROM SPC FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT BELIEVE NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER MAY SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C COMBINED WITH A 40 TO 45 KT LLJ ARE IN ENVIRONMENT OF AROUND 500 TO 800 J/KG CAPE. WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND HANG OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY LATE SATURDAY...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY IN THE AREA THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DROP TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH MOST OF THE REGION SEEING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE GFS STILL ABOUT SIX HOURS FASTER IN TIMING. THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE MUCH DEEPER WITH A TREND FOR A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA. ON THE SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL QUICKLY SWING BACK TO THE NORTH INTO THE CORN BELT AS A 995MB SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM KANSAS TO ILLINOIS. STRONG SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY. WILL ADD MENTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE UPCOMING HWO. FOR NOW LAPSE RATES DON'T APPEAR TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE NEAR 6C...HOWEVER THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT APPEARS TO BE MUCH STRONGER. THUS MULTICELL LINES WITH BOWING SEGMENTS APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORABLE STORM MODE/THREAT. RAIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND AN UPPER RIDGE QUICK TO MOVE IN. THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER HOWEVER. WIND SPEEDS AND AFTERNOON RHS IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAY CAUSE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE JET PATTERN NEXT WEEK SHOWS A SPLIT FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW GETS PINCHED OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MIDSOUTH WILL GET CLIPPED BY THIS SHORTWAVE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. JAB && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY AT KMEM BUT SHOULD BECOME VFR LATER THIS EVENING WHILE CEILINGS AT KTUP WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD DROP TO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE FRIDAY BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. ARS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 40 62 47 49 / 10 20 60 40 MKL 33 58 44 46 / 10 20 60 40 JBR 32 50 38 42 / 0 20 60 30 TUP 45 65 54 56 / 10 20 70 50 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$