279 
FXUS64 KBMX 092057
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
257 PM CST MON JAN 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOW ENTERING WEST TEXAS AND MOVING EASTWARD
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVER THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE WE HAVE SEEN
OUR FAIR SHARE OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...IT SEEMS NOW THE RAIN HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE
WEST OF US...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW GATHERING STRENGTH JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT DRIFTED NORTHWARD TODAY...PUTTING ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE POSITION OF THAT FRONT
WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. IF THE FRONT DRIFTS BACK SOUTH...THEN THERE COULD BE
SOME SIGNIFICANT FOG IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKE LAST NIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH...THERE'S BOUND TO BE POCKETS OF FOG (ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR WATER BODIES)...BUT I DON'T THINK THE DENSE STUFF
WILL BECOME A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM. I DON'T THINK.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT...
ESPECIALLY FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. NO
BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...SOMEWHAT HIGH SHEAR...BUT
THEY DON'T EVER SEEM TO GET SYNCED UP. WILL WATCH DEVELOPMENTS TO
OUT WEST CLOSELY TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...AND CAN RAMP UP IF
THE NEED ARISES.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
AFTER (WE'VE DISCOUNTED THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER NAM FRONTAL TIMING).
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS RIGHT ACROSS
ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP PROVIDE LOTS OF CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THAT SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL FINALLY EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

/61/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD IN OUR FORECAST.  THE ONE 
THING WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK 
IMPULSE SWINGS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN CUT-OFF LOW 
OVER THE MIDWEST.  THIS IMPULSE IS GOING TO BRING CENTRAL ALABAMA A 
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AND COLD AIR THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO 
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BOTH OF 
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF QPF IN OUR NORTHEAST 
COUNTIES RIGHT AROUND THE TIME THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ADVECT INTO 
THE STATE.  I DON'T THINK THERE'S MUCH OF A THREAT OF ANYTHING 
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...BUT A FLURRY OR TWO ISN'T OUT OF THE 
QUESTION.

AS I SAID...THIS IMPULSE IS GOING TO USHER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR. 
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 
MORNINGS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR 
YOUR MLK JR. WEEKEND.

TWO SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ARE BEING PORTRAYED IN THE 
LONG RANGE MODELS...WITH THE GFS BEING THE OUTLIER.  AS THE EURO/CMC 
AND EVEN THE DGEX REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WILL HOLD STEADY 
WITH THE 10 POP THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST..AND SLOWLY 
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.  UNDER THESE SOLUTIONS...THE NEXT CHANCE OF 
RAIN ISN'T UNTIL TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

27

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DIFFUSE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL IN VICINITY OF KMSL TO
KHSV TO KRMG ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA. WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN TEXAS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THEY WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING MIX OUT AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL OUR
TAF SITES DUE TO THE STALLED FRONT IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ISSUE AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED IN FUTURE UPDATES. ALSO APPEARS
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE VCSH IN FOR ALL SITES STARTING 10/15Z TO DEAL WITH
THIS.

77/GLEASON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  64  53  57  45 /  50  90 100  80  30 
ANNISTON    51  64  55  58  45 /  50  90 100  80  30 
BIRMINGHAM  54  64  54  58  46 /  70 100  90  80  20 
TUSCALOOSA  55  68  53  59  43 /  80 100  80  60  10 
CALERA      53  66  53  58  44 /  70 100  90  70  10 
AUBURN      54  65  53  58  45 /  40  90 100  60  10 
MONTGOMERY  56  68  55  61  44 /  60 100  90  50  10 
TROY        54  68  53  62  42 /  40  90 100  50  10 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. 

&&

$$