279 FXUS64 KBMX 092057 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 257 PM CST MON JAN 9 2012 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOW ENTERING WEST TEXAS AND MOVING EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE WE HAVE SEEN OUR FAIR SHARE OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT SEEMS NOW THE RAIN HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE WEST OF US...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW GATHERING STRENGTH JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT DRIFTED NORTHWARD TODAY...PUTTING ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE POSITION OF THAT FRONT WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. IF THE FRONT DRIFTS BACK SOUTH...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SIGNIFICANT FOG IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKE LAST NIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...THERE'S BOUND TO BE POCKETS OF FOG (ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR WATER BODIES)...BUT I DON'T THINK THE DENSE STUFF WILL BECOME A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM. I DON'T THINK. ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT... ESPECIALLY FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...SOMEWHAT HIGH SHEAR...BUT THEY DON'T EVER SEEM TO GET SYNCED UP. WILL WATCH DEVELOPMENTS TO OUT WEST CLOSELY TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...AND CAN RAMP UP IF THE NEED ARISES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER (WE'VE DISCOUNTED THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER NAM FRONTAL TIMING). THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS RIGHT ACROSS ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP PROVIDE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THAT SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL FINALLY EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /61/ .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD IN OUR FORECAST. THE ONE THING WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK IMPULSE SWINGS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IMPULSE IS GOING TO BRING CENTRAL ALABAMA A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AND COLD AIR THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BOTH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF QPF IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES RIGHT AROUND THE TIME THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ADVECT INTO THE STATE. I DON'T THINK THERE'S MUCH OF A THREAT OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...BUT A FLURRY OR TWO ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS I SAID...THIS IMPULSE IS GOING TO USHER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR YOUR MLK JR. WEEKEND. TWO SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ARE BEING PORTRAYED IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS...WITH THE GFS BEING THE OUTLIER. AS THE EURO/CMC AND EVEN THE DGEX REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WILL HOLD STEADY WITH THE 10 POP THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST..AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. UNDER THESE SOLUTIONS...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ISN'T UNTIL TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 27 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. DIFFUSE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL IN VICINITY OF KMSL TO KHSV TO KRMG ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA. WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN TEXAS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THEY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING MIX OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL OUR TAF SITES DUE TO THE STALLED FRONT IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ISSUE AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED IN FUTURE UPDATES. ALSO APPEARS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE VCSH IN FOR ALL SITES STARTING 10/15Z TO DEAL WITH THIS. 77/GLEASON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 49 64 53 57 45 / 50 90 100 80 30 ANNISTON 51 64 55 58 45 / 50 90 100 80 30 BIRMINGHAM 54 64 54 58 46 / 70 100 90 80 20 TUSCALOOSA 55 68 53 59 43 / 80 100 80 60 10 CALERA 53 66 53 58 44 / 70 100 90 70 10 AUBURN 54 65 53 58 45 / 40 90 100 60 10 MONTGOMERY 56 68 55 61 44 / 60 100 90 50 10 TROY 54 68 53 62 42 / 40 90 100 50 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$