733 
FXUS61 KBGM 091818
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
118 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...WEAK WAVE/WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.
FLOW HAS BACKED SOUTHWESTERLY...ENDING ANY VERY LIGHT
FLURRIES...AND LEAVING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN ITS WAKE
AREAWIDE.

WITH SCANT SNOW COVER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WE WILL RECEIVE FULL
EFFECT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S FOR MAJORITY OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON /HIGHEST ELEVS MID 30S/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, A STRONGER H5
TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
MOISTURE AND FORCING, ALTHOUGH STILL FAIRLY WEAK, MAY PRODUCE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DOWN THE LAKE PLAIN INTO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY, CAA AND 290/300 FLOW MAY
PRODUCE WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS T85 DROPS TO -9C. ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND DIMINISH TO SCATTERED FLURRIES BY
MIDDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER NYS GENERALLY MID
TO UPPER 30S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE TN
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATL
COAST A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MILD AIR WILL DEVELOP AS MAX TEMPS
ON WED REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS LIFTS THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE
TN VALLEY TO DELMARVA BY 12Z THURSDAY. GENERALLY A SFC TRACK THIS
FAR SOUTH IN JANUARY WOULD MEAN SNOW OR AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX, BUT
WITH NO COLD AIR OVER THE AREA THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
A COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH NO COLD
CANADIAN HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A NORTHERN STREAM SFC LOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ALL INDICATE A RAIN EVENT FOR EARLY JANUARY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MADE FEW CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY. THURSDAY
WITH THE SLOWER SPEED OF THE STORM UPPED POPS TO LIKELY. STEADY
RAIN WILL BE CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING BEFORE ENDING DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INVERTED TROF.

330 PM UPDATE...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...A LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS NOW
SLOWER ON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW
ARRIVING SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAIN
SHOWERS DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST. STILL PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR THURSDAY
AND KEPT LIQUID IN THROUGH THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON A 
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -14C BY 12Z FRIDAY. 
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT IF YOU BELIEVE THE 
EURO...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MOST OF THE SNOWS WILL BE NORTH AND 
WEST OF THE CWA. WITH THAT SAID THE GFS CONTINUES TO BACK THE WIND A 
BIT MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND ALSO HAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC 
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THUS CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE. 

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE DURING THIS 
PERIOD WITH BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOWING 850 TEMPS IN THE -14C TO 
-18C RANGE. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...WITH SOME HELP FROM SOME SYNOPTIC 
MOISTURE WRAPPING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CUT OFF LOW MENTIONED 
ABOVE...SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 
WESTERLY WIND MAY TRY TO VEER A BIT MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST 
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SNOW IN OUR CWA. 
FOR NOW CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS (IN THE CHANCE RANGE) 
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND FAR WEST DUE TO THE WIND FLOW PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES EARLY THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCRSNG MID AND
HI CLDS THIS EVNG AS A CDFNT APRCHS. LATER TNGT...AFTER
06Z...XPCT MVFR CIGS AND SOME -SHSN TO DVLP THEN MOV SEWD ACRS THE
BGM CWA...AND PSBLY INTO NE PA TWDS DAYBREAK. THESE MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST ON TUE..ALTHO ELM/AVP LIKELY TO SEE SOME IMPRVMNT TO BKN VFR
CIGS BY LATE MRNG. WINDS THIS AFTN GNRLY SRLY OR SWLY 5-10
KTS...S TO SWLY TNGT ARND 10 KTS BECMG NWLY 10-20 KT TUE MRNG
AFTER FROPA.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS CNTRL NY. 

WED...VFR. 

WED NGT/THU/THU NGT...MVFR TO IFR IN -SHRA OR RAIN...PSBLY HIER
ELEVATION SNOW.

FRI...MVFR IN LAKE ENHANCED SHSN ACRS CNTRL NY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...RRM 
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC 
AVIATION...