733 FXUS61 KBGM 091818 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 118 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 115 PM UPDATE...WEAK WAVE/WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. FLOW HAS BACKED SOUTHWESTERLY...ENDING ANY VERY LIGHT FLURRIES...AND LEAVING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN ITS WAKE AREAWIDE. WITH SCANT SNOW COVER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WE WILL RECEIVE FULL EFFECT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MAJORITY OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON /HIGHEST ELEVS MID 30S/. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT/TUESDAY...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, A STRONGER H5 TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE AND FORCING, ALTHOUGH STILL FAIRLY WEAK, MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DOWN THE LAKE PLAIN INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY, CAA AND 290/300 FLOW MAY PRODUCE WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS T85 DROPS TO -9C. ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND DIMINISH TO SCATTERED FLURRIES BY MIDDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER NYS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 30S. TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATL COAST A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MILD AIR WILL DEVELOP AS MAX TEMPS ON WED REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS LIFTS THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE TN VALLEY TO DELMARVA BY 12Z THURSDAY. GENERALLY A SFC TRACK THIS FAR SOUTH IN JANUARY WOULD MEAN SNOW OR AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX, BUT WITH NO COLD AIR OVER THE AREA THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ALL RAIN EVENT. A COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH NO COLD CANADIAN HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A NORTHERN STREAM SFC LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALL INDICATE A RAIN EVENT FOR EARLY JANUARY. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 3 AM UPDATE... MADE FEW CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY. THURSDAY WITH THE SLOWER SPEED OF THE STORM UPPED POPS TO LIKELY. STEADY RAIN WILL BE CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INVERTED TROF. 330 PM UPDATE... WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...A LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS NOW SLOWER ON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW ARRIVING SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST. STILL PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR THURSDAY AND KEPT LIQUID IN THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -14C BY 12Z FRIDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT IF YOU BELIEVE THE EURO...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MOST OF THE SNOWS WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. WITH THAT SAID THE GFS CONTINUES TO BACK THE WIND A BIT MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND ALSO HAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THUS CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE. FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOWING 850 TEMPS IN THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...WITH SOME HELP FROM SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CUT OFF LOW MENTIONED ABOVE...SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WIND MAY TRY TO VEER A BIT MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SNOW IN OUR CWA. FOR NOW CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS (IN THE CHANCE RANGE) ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND FAR WEST DUE TO THE WIND FLOW PREDICTED. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY CLR SKIES EARLY THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCRSNG MID AND HI CLDS THIS EVNG AS A CDFNT APRCHS. LATER TNGT...AFTER 06Z...XPCT MVFR CIGS AND SOME -SHSN TO DVLP THEN MOV SEWD ACRS THE BGM CWA...AND PSBLY INTO NE PA TWDS DAYBREAK. THESE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ON TUE..ALTHO ELM/AVP LIKELY TO SEE SOME IMPRVMNT TO BKN VFR CIGS BY LATE MRNG. WINDS THIS AFTN GNRLY SRLY OR SWLY 5-10 KTS...S TO SWLY TNGT ARND 10 KTS BECMG NWLY 10-20 KT TUE MRNG AFTER FROPA. .OUTLOOK... TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS CNTRL NY. WED...VFR. WED NGT/THU/THU NGT...MVFR TO IFR IN -SHRA OR RAIN...PSBLY HIER ELEVATION SNOW. FRI...MVFR IN LAKE ENHANCED SHSN ACRS CNTRL NY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC AVIATION...