710 
FXUS64 KMAF 081046
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
446 AM CST SUN JAN 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF MAF...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW WILL GO.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AS IT HAS OUTPERFORMED ALL OTHER
MODELS RECENTLY. IT...ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN...TAKES THE SYSTEM
FURTHER SOUTH BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR. OTHER
MODELS TAKING THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TAKE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST SNOW INTO WINKER/ANDREWS/DAWSON COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT
THOUGH WE ARE JUST ARGUING ABOUT WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
AS PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS SHOW 4+ INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. 

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN BUT WET BULBING SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION THIS OVER INTO SNOW WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER DISAPPEARING BY 09Z. DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWFALL
SHOULD BLANKET MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND MODELS ARE SHOWING A
JOG OF THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST AFTER IT PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH
COULD KEEP THE CWA IN WRAP AROUND SNOW SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN WOULD
BE EXPECTED IF IT JUST CONTINUED EAST. PUT 5 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
WSW BUT CONVECTIVE BANDING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES OR GREATER. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSNOW AS WELL BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE AS THE GRIDS WERE ALREADY GETTING CLUTTERED WITH SO MUCH
GOING ON. WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO WAIT FOR ONE MORE MODEL RUN TO
UPGRADE TO A WARNING BUT THE FACT THAT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE
SECOND PERIOD AND WITH THIS BEING A HIGH END EVENT FELT IT BEST TO
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE WARNING DESPITE SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY.
THE BIGGEST WORRY ABOUT SNOWFALL NOT PANNING OUT AS FORECAST WILL
BE A LATER THAN EXPECTED TRANSITION TO SNOW...OR HEAVY WET SNOW
MELTING AND COMPACTING ON THE GROUND LIMITING SNOW DEPTH. RAIN OR
SNOW...QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH WILL BE VERY WELCOME SOIL
MOISTURE EVEN IF THE RESERVOIRS DO NOT BENEFIT MUCH.

TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTED
SNOWFALL REMAINING ON THE GROUND. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY...INDEED THE ONLY DAY THIS WEEK THAT CAN BE CATEGORIZED AS
WARM...WITH ZONAL FLOW PROVIDING A DOWNSLOPING WARMING EFFECT.
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS
EACH MODEL GIVES ITS OWN DIFFERENT DEPICTION OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN.
THE CANADIAN AND 0Z GFS SHOW A STRONG VORT MAX OF VARYING STRENGTH
AND LOCATION BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SNOW ON THURSDAY
THOUGH THE 06Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION. PLACED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST IN DEFERENCE TO THIS
POSSIBILITY...BUT THE ECMWF HAS PERFORMED BEST SO FAR THIS SEASON
AND STAYED CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTION WITH YET ANOTHER CUTOFF UPPER
LOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO
TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH SOLUTIONS THOUGH DO KEEP US IN EITHER
NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO USHER IN
COOL AIR KEEPING US BELOW NORMAL THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              55  31  33  28  /   0  80 100  80 
CARLSBAD NM                53  29  32  25  /   0  80  70  10 
DRYDEN TX                  67  42  44  30  /   0  70  50  10 
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  32  34  29  /   0  90  80  30 
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  27  32  25  /   0  90  70  10 
HOBBS NM                   52  29  31  25  /   0  80  80  40 
MARFA TX                   65  29  35  19  /   0  70  60  10 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  30  32  25  /   0  80 100  60 
ODESSA TX                  56  30  33  25  /   0  80 100  50 
WINK TX                    62  31  33  26  /   0  90  90  20 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST MONDAY 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...NORTHERN 
     LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE 
     MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

TX...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST 
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
     CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...
     LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...
     SCURRY...UPTON...WARD...WINKLER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST 
     MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... BIG BEND AREA...MARFA 
     PLATEAU.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 
     PM CST /5 PM MST/ MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... 
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...REEVES 
     COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 
     CORRIDOR.


&&

$$

12/10