710 FXUS64 KMAF 081046 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 446 AM CST SUN JAN 8 2012 .DISCUSSION... A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF MAF...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW WILL GO. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AS IT HAS OUTPERFORMED ALL OTHER MODELS RECENTLY. IT...ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN...TAKES THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR. OTHER MODELS TAKING THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TAKE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW INTO WINKER/ANDREWS/DAWSON COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT THOUGH WE ARE JUST ARGUING ABOUT WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL AS PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS SHOW 4+ INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN BUT WET BULBING SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THIS OVER INTO SNOW WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER DISAPPEARING BY 09Z. DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWFALL SHOULD BLANKET MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND MODELS ARE SHOWING A JOG OF THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST AFTER IT PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH COULD KEEP THE CWA IN WRAP AROUND SNOW SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED IF IT JUST CONTINUED EAST. PUT 5 TO 7 INCHES IN THE WSW BUT CONVECTIVE BANDING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OR GREATER. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSNOW AS WELL BUT DID NOT INCLUDE AS THE GRIDS WERE ALREADY GETTING CLUTTERED WITH SO MUCH GOING ON. WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO WAIT FOR ONE MORE MODEL RUN TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING BUT THE FACT THAT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE SECOND PERIOD AND WITH THIS BEING A HIGH END EVENT FELT IT BEST TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE WARNING DESPITE SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY. THE BIGGEST WORRY ABOUT SNOWFALL NOT PANNING OUT AS FORECAST WILL BE A LATER THAN EXPECTED TRANSITION TO SNOW...OR HEAVY WET SNOW MELTING AND COMPACTING ON THE GROUND LIMITING SNOW DEPTH. RAIN OR SNOW...QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH WILL BE VERY WELCOME SOIL MOISTURE EVEN IF THE RESERVOIRS DO NOT BENEFIT MUCH. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTED SNOWFALL REMAINING ON THE GROUND. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...INDEED THE ONLY DAY THIS WEEK THAT CAN BE CATEGORIZED AS WARM...WITH ZONAL FLOW PROVIDING A DOWNSLOPING WARMING EFFECT. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS EACH MODEL GIVES ITS OWN DIFFERENT DEPICTION OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN. THE CANADIAN AND 0Z GFS SHOW A STRONG VORT MAX OF VARYING STRENGTH AND LOCATION BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SNOW ON THURSDAY THOUGH THE 06Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION. PLACED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST IN DEFERENCE TO THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT THE ECMWF HAS PERFORMED BEST SO FAR THIS SEASON AND STAYED CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTION WITH YET ANOTHER CUTOFF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH SOLUTIONS THOUGH DO KEEP US IN EITHER NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO USHER IN COOL AIR KEEPING US BELOW NORMAL THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HENNIG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 55 31 33 28 / 0 80 100 80 CARLSBAD NM 53 29 32 25 / 0 80 70 10 DRYDEN TX 67 42 44 30 / 0 70 50 10 FORT STOCKTON TX 64 32 34 29 / 0 90 80 30 GUADALUPE PASS TX 47 27 32 25 / 0 90 70 10 HOBBS NM 52 29 31 25 / 0 80 80 40 MARFA TX 65 29 35 19 / 0 70 60 10 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 58 30 32 25 / 0 80 100 60 ODESSA TX 56 30 33 25 / 0 80 100 50 WINK TX 62 31 33 26 / 0 90 90 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY. TX...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN... CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD... LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN... SCURRY...UPTON...WARD...WINKLER. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... BIG BEND AREA...MARFA PLATEAU. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR. && $$ 12/10