008 
FXUS61 KCAR 241846
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
146 PM EST THU NOV 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS..
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK WELL NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY AND
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH
LATER MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: UPDATED TO GO MOSTLY SUNNY IN DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS.
THE FAR WEST REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY.

ORGNL DISC: CLD CVR WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT FCST ELEMENT FOR
THE NEAR TERM. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW SC CLD CVR STUBBORN
TO LEAVE CNTRL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA ERLY THIS MORN. IN ADDITION...
MODELS SHOW A BAND OF MID CLDNSS APCH FROM ERN QB ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK S/WV MOVG E...N OF THE FA. BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS... ARE
BREAKS OF CLR SKY. WE XPCT THE MID CLD BAND TO QUICKLY PASS OVR
NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA THIS MORN WHILE THE SC CLD DECK OVR
CNTRL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA THINS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES. THIS
HODGEPODGE OF CLDNSS IN ADDITION TO NEW SN CVR SHOULD KEEP HI
TEMPS A LITTLE BLO NORMAL TDY DESPITE SOME RECOVERY OF 925 TEMPS
THIS AFTN.

AFTERWARDS TOWARD LATE THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE...ANOTHER WEAK S/WV
FROM QB ASSOCIATED WITH AN 850 MB WARM FRONT WILL BRING MORE LOW
SC CLD CVR TO PARTICULARLY THE N HALF OF THE FA. A VERY STRONG
INVSN DEVELOPING IN THE 900 AND 850 MB LAYER LATE TNGT WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVSN POINT...KEEPING
A THIN LAYER OF BKN-OVC SC CONTG THRU MOST OF THE NGT OVR THE N
HALF OF THE FA. THE THINNESS OF THIS CLD BAND MAKES IT UNCERTAIN
WHETHER THERE WILL BE BREAKS FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OR NOT...
SO FOR NOW WE DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHGS TO OVRNGT LOWS FROM PREVIOUS
RECENT FCST UPDATES...WHICH BE MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NGTS.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE: STRATUS IS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. WILL UPDATE
FCST TO MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND WEST. 

ORGNL DISC: CLD CVR WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT FCST ELEMENT FOR
THE NEAR TERM. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW SC CLD CVR STUBBORN
TO LEAVE CNTRL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA ERLY THIS MORN. IN ADDITION...
MODELS SHOW A BAND OF MID CLDNSS APCH FROM ERN QB ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK S/WV MOVG E...N OF THE FA. BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS... ARE
BREAKS OF CLR SKY. WE XPCT THE MID CLD BAND TO QUICKLY PASS OVR
NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA THIS MORN WHILE THE SC CLD DECK OVR
CNTRL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA THINS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES. THIS
HODGEPODGE OF CLDNSS IN ADDITION TO NEW SN CVR SHOULD KEEP HI
TEMPS A LITTLE BLO NORMAL TDY DESPITE SOME RECOVERY OF 925 TEMPS
THIS AFTN.

AFTERWARDS TOWARD LATE THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE...ANOTHER WEAK S/WV
FROM QB ASSOCIATED WITH AN 850 MB WARM FRONT WILL BRING MORE LOW
SC CLD CVR TO PARTICULARLY THE N HALF OF THE FA. A VERY STRONG
INVSN DEVELOPING IN THE 900 AND 850 MB LAYER LATE TNGT WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVSN POINT...KEEPING
A THIN LAYER OF BKN-OVC SC CONTG THRU MOST OF THE NGT OVR THE N
HALF OF THE FA. THE THINNESS OF THIS CLD BAND MAKES IT UNCERTAIN
WHETHER THERE WILL BE BREAKS FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OR NOT...
SO FOR NOW WE DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHGS TO OVRNGT LOWS FROM PREVIOUS
RECENT FCST UPDATES...WHICH BE MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NGTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A SW FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING FRIDAY. THIS FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST. A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP IN NORTHERN ZONES AND PRODUCE
PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WHILE SOME SUNSHINE SEEMS LIKELY FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST LOCATIONS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NORTHERN ZONES TO MAINTAIN THE
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT
WITH MAYBE A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW 30S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S
ALONG THE COAST. 

FOR SATURDAY...THE FRONT STALLS BEFORE CLEARING THE STATE AND
SLOWLY RETURNS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT POSSIBLY
TOWARDS THE SJV WHERE SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
AREAS. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD DURING
THE DAY...SUCCEEDING IN PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S DOWN EAST
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT ONLY REACHING UPPER 30S IN
AROOSTOOK BY LATE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WARM FRONT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE CROWN AND EVEN
SOME ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS AND NO FRZ DZ IN THE GRIDS AT THIS
TIME.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MILD...CLOUDY....AND WET SUMS IT UP.
STRONG RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC...BLOCKING
WESTWARD MOVING SYSTEMS AND ALLOWING A WARM MARITIME SURGE TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. SUSTAINED MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY ELIMINATE EXISTING SNOW COVER BY MID-WEEK. THE BIGGEST
QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD AND IF A LLJ WILL PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE EXACT
STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL DICTATE THE EXACT TRACK OF A LONG LONGITUDINAL TRACK OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL LATITUDES. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT...PRODUCING A
VERY WET AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. AM FOLLOWING GEFS GUIDANCE AT
THIS POINT WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AND LEAVING
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOODING IS A CONCERN IN THIS
SCENARIO WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOW
MELT. AS FOR THE WINDS...THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE MONDAY THE MOST
LIKELY FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR...WITH MVFR INTERVALS OF BKN-OVC SC ATTMS...
SPCLY NRN TAF SITES TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR FROM HUL NORTHWARD FRIDAY. VFR SOUTH OF HUL. MVFR
TEMPO IFR NORTH OF HUL FRIDAY NIGHT. CHC OF FOG AND IFR FOR BGR
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL AREAS WILL BECOME
VFR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT TO MVFR SUNDAY.  MORE OF THE SAME FOR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE DROPPING BELOW 5 FT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
SCA FOR SEAS HAS BEEN LIFTING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. 

SHORT TERM: CHC OF AN SCA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE A STRONG SCA
OR GALE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCB