008 FXUS61 KCAR 241846 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 146 PM EST THU NOV 24 2011 .SYNOPSIS.. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH LATER MONDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE: UPDATED TO GO MOSTLY SUNNY IN DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS. THE FAR WEST REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY. ORGNL DISC: CLD CVR WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT FCST ELEMENT FOR THE NEAR TERM. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW SC CLD CVR STUBBORN TO LEAVE CNTRL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA ERLY THIS MORN. IN ADDITION... MODELS SHOW A BAND OF MID CLDNSS APCH FROM ERN QB ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK S/WV MOVG E...N OF THE FA. BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS... ARE BREAKS OF CLR SKY. WE XPCT THE MID CLD BAND TO QUICKLY PASS OVR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA THIS MORN WHILE THE SC CLD DECK OVR CNTRL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA THINS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES. THIS HODGEPODGE OF CLDNSS IN ADDITION TO NEW SN CVR SHOULD KEEP HI TEMPS A LITTLE BLO NORMAL TDY DESPITE SOME RECOVERY OF 925 TEMPS THIS AFTN. AFTERWARDS TOWARD LATE THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE...ANOTHER WEAK S/WV FROM QB ASSOCIATED WITH AN 850 MB WARM FRONT WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLD CVR TO PARTICULARLY THE N HALF OF THE FA. A VERY STRONG INVSN DEVELOPING IN THE 900 AND 850 MB LAYER LATE TNGT WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVSN POINT...KEEPING A THIN LAYER OF BKN-OVC SC CONTG THRU MOST OF THE NGT OVR THE N HALF OF THE FA. THE THINNESS OF THIS CLD BAND MAKES IT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL BE BREAKS FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OR NOT... SO FOR NOW WE DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHGS TO OVRNGT LOWS FROM PREVIOUS RECENT FCST UPDATES...WHICH BE MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NGTS.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPDATE: STRATUS IS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. WILL UPDATE FCST TO MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND WEST. ORGNL DISC: CLD CVR WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT FCST ELEMENT FOR THE NEAR TERM. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW SC CLD CVR STUBBORN TO LEAVE CNTRL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA ERLY THIS MORN. IN ADDITION... MODELS SHOW A BAND OF MID CLDNSS APCH FROM ERN QB ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK S/WV MOVG E...N OF THE FA. BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS... ARE BREAKS OF CLR SKY. WE XPCT THE MID CLD BAND TO QUICKLY PASS OVR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA THIS MORN WHILE THE SC CLD DECK OVR CNTRL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA THINS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES. THIS HODGEPODGE OF CLDNSS IN ADDITION TO NEW SN CVR SHOULD KEEP HI TEMPS A LITTLE BLO NORMAL TDY DESPITE SOME RECOVERY OF 925 TEMPS THIS AFTN. AFTERWARDS TOWARD LATE THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE...ANOTHER WEAK S/WV FROM QB ASSOCIATED WITH AN 850 MB WARM FRONT WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLD CVR TO PARTICULARLY THE N HALF OF THE FA. A VERY STRONG INVSN DEVELOPING IN THE 900 AND 850 MB LAYER LATE TNGT WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVSN POINT...KEEPING A THIN LAYER OF BKN-OVC SC CONTG THRU MOST OF THE NGT OVR THE N HALF OF THE FA. THE THINNESS OF THIS CLD BAND MAKES IT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL BE BREAKS FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OR NOT... SO FOR NOW WE DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHGS TO OVRNGT LOWS FROM PREVIOUS RECENT FCST UPDATES...WHICH BE MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NGTS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND A SW FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY. THIS FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP IN NORTHERN ZONES AND PRODUCE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WHILE SOME SUNSHINE SEEMS LIKELY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST LOCATIONS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NORTHERN ZONES TO MAINTAIN THE CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT WITH MAYBE A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW 30S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. FOR SATURDAY...THE FRONT STALLS BEFORE CLEARING THE STATE AND SLOWLY RETURNS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT POSSIBLY TOWARDS THE SJV WHERE SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S DOWN EAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ON SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AREAS. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...SUCCEEDING IN PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S DOWN EAST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT ONLY REACHING UPPER 30S IN AROOSTOOK BY LATE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WARM FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE CROWN AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS AND NO FRZ DZ IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MILD...CLOUDY....AND WET SUMS IT UP. STRONG RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC...BLOCKING WESTWARD MOVING SYSTEMS AND ALLOWING A WARM MARITIME SURGE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. SUSTAINED MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ELIMINATE EXISTING SNOW COVER BY MID-WEEK. THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD AND IF A LLJ WILL PRODUCE ANY DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST. THE KEY WILL BE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL DICTATE THE EXACT TRACK OF A LONG LONGITUDINAL TRACK OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL LATITUDES. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT...PRODUCING A VERY WET AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. AM FOLLOWING GEFS GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AND LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOODING IS A CONCERN IN THIS SCENARIO WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT. AS FOR THE WINDS...THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE MONDAY THE MOST LIKELY FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR...WITH MVFR INTERVALS OF BKN-OVC SC ATTMS... SPCLY NRN TAF SITES TNGT. SHORT TERM: MVFR FROM HUL NORTHWARD FRIDAY. VFR SOUTH OF HUL. MVFR TEMPO IFR NORTH OF HUL FRIDAY NIGHT. CHC OF FOG AND IFR FOR BGR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT TO MVFR SUNDAY. MORE OF THE SAME FOR MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE DROPPING BELOW 5 FT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SCA FOR SEAS HAS BEEN LIFTING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: CHC OF AN SCA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE A STRONG SCA OR GALE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCB