000 
FXUS64 KMAF 310925
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
425 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR/RUC COMBO INDICATES VERY LITTLE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF DESERT SOUTHWEST CUT-OFF LOW FROM YESTERDAY. 
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SPAWNED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MEX/FAR WEST TX WITH ACTIVITY NOW
BEGINNING TO ENTER WESTERN ZONES. HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY PERSISTING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TRANS PECOS BY MID/LATE MORNING. ASSOCIATED
MID/LOW CLOUDS AND THE PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP MAKES THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST RATHER CHALLENGING HOWEVER WITH ALL INDICATIONS POINTING
TOWARDS CLOUDS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SOLAR INSULATION...HAVE
DECIDED TO TRIM A FEW DEGREES OF INHERITED HIGHS. THAT
SAID...ATTENTION QUICKLY SHIFTS TO PROSPECTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHWRS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ORIGINATING FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CUT-OFF IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (7-9 C/KM). ALL MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW ACROSS FAR WEST TX/SW NM WITH
SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NM
HIGH PLAINS. BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS EXPECTED AS
THE THERMAL LOW STRENGTHENS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT
IN INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE WEST TX MOUNTAINS/MARFA PLATEAU. A WELL DEVELOPED THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS IS ALSO EXPECTED EXTEND NORTH ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
LINE WHICH WILL HELP IN THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE STRENGTHENING 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR (NEAR 40 KTS) WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL BACKED FLOW QUICKLY VEERING TO THE WEST ALOFT. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED DESPITE DELAYED SOLAR HEATING WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. COULD ACTUALLY
SEE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AS NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY
MORNING ACTIVITY MAY SPAWN STORMS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN/LOWER
TRANS PECOS. THUS HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST IN
RESPONSE TO REASONING LISTED ABOVE. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...A VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALONG WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY. HEAVY
RAIN/POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT OF SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT AND DECENT PWAT VALUES.

MOISTURE ADVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
LEESIDE LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SW KS HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL 
RESULT IN DRYLINE FORMATION OUT WEST. INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING H85 WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS UP
OVERNIGHT. DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING AFTERNOON SHWRS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES BY
AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG) ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SUGGEST
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. BULK SHEAR ORIENTATION NEARLY NORMAL TO
THE DRYLINE INDICATES SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST WITH CHANCE MENTION
ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. SIMILAR SET-UP EXPECTED ON TUE WITH
POSSIBLE FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF DRYLINE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE ALONG WITH
WARM ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY WED MORNING WITH
NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR EXPECTED AS A WELL DEVELOPED SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED PRECIP MENTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THU MORNING AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
ELEVATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SLIGHTLY COOLER/NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THU WITH SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL.
WELL DEFINED REX BLOCK DEVELOPING BY THE CONCLUSION OF NEXT WEEK
WITH MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WORKING OVER AREA. AS A
RESULT...A WELL DEFINED WARM UP IS STILL EXPECTED BY THE
CONCLUSION OF THE WEEK AS H85 TEMPS AND HEIGHTS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              88  66  92  68  /  20  10  20  20 
CARLSBAD NM                88  60  94  60  /  20  20  10   0 
DRYDEN TX                  88  67  92  69  /  20  20  30  20 
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  66  96  67  /  20  20  30  10 
GUADALUPE PASS TX          82  61  87  64  /  20  20  10   0 
HOBBS NM                   88  61  92  60  /  20  20  10   0 
MARFA TX                   85  52  89  52  /  30  20  10   0 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  65  93  67  /  20  20  20  10 
ODESSA TX                  89  67  94  69  /  20  20  20  10 
WINK TX                    91  67  99  66  /  20  20  20   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

32/06