000 FXUS64 KMAF 310925 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 425 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009 .DISCUSSION... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR/RUC COMBO INDICATES VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DESERT SOUTHWEST CUT-OFF LOW FROM YESTERDAY. UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SPAWNED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MEX/FAR WEST TX WITH ACTIVITY NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER WESTERN ZONES. HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY PERSISTING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TRANS PECOS BY MID/LATE MORNING. ASSOCIATED MID/LOW CLOUDS AND THE PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP MAKES THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST RATHER CHALLENGING HOWEVER WITH ALL INDICATIONS POINTING TOWARDS CLOUDS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SOLAR INSULATION...HAVE DECIDED TO TRIM A FEW DEGREES OF INHERITED HIGHS. THAT SAID...ATTENTION QUICKLY SHIFTS TO PROSPECTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CUT-OFF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-9 C/KM). ALL MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW ACROSS FAR WEST TX/SW NM WITH SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NM HIGH PLAINS. BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS EXPECTED AS THE THERMAL LOW STRENGTHENS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WEST TX MOUNTAINS/MARFA PLATEAU. A WELL DEVELOPED THETA-E RIDGE AXIS IS ALSO EXPECTED EXTEND NORTH ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE WHICH WILL HELP IN THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE STRENGTHENING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR (NEAR 40 KTS) WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL BACKED FLOW QUICKLY VEERING TO THE WEST ALOFT. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED DESPITE DELAYED SOLAR HEATING WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. COULD ACTUALLY SEE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AS NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY MORNING ACTIVITY MAY SPAWN STORMS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN/LOWER TRANS PECOS. THUS HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST IN RESPONSE TO REASONING LISTED ABOVE. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY. HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT OF SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND DECENT PWAT VALUES. MOISTURE ADVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A LEESIDE LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SW KS HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRYLINE FORMATION OUT WEST. INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING H85 WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT. DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW WITH MODELS SUGGESTING AFTERNOON SHWRS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES BY AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG) ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SUGGEST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. BULK SHEAR ORIENTATION NEARLY NORMAL TO THE DRYLINE INDICATES SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST WITH CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. SIMILAR SET-UP EXPECTED ON TUE WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF DRYLINE IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE ALONG WITH WARM ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY WED MORNING WITH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR EXPECTED AS A WELL DEVELOPED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED PRECIP MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THU MORNING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SLIGHTLY COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THU WITH SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL. WELL DEFINED REX BLOCK DEVELOPING BY THE CONCLUSION OF NEXT WEEK WITH MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WORKING OVER AREA. AS A RESULT...A WELL DEFINED WARM UP IS STILL EXPECTED BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE WEEK AS H85 TEMPS AND HEIGHTS INCREASE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 88 66 92 68 / 20 10 20 20 CARLSBAD NM 88 60 94 60 / 20 20 10 0 DRYDEN TX 88 67 92 69 / 20 20 30 20 FORT STOCKTON TX 90 66 96 67 / 20 20 30 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 82 61 87 64 / 20 20 10 0 HOBBS NM 88 61 92 60 / 20 20 10 0 MARFA TX 85 52 89 52 / 30 20 10 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 88 65 93 67 / 20 20 20 10 ODESSA TX 89 67 94 69 / 20 20 20 10 WINK TX 91 67 99 66 / 20 20 20 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 32/06