000 
FXUS62 KILM 290145
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
945 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM TUESDAY...AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT. THIS MEANS ANOTHER NIGHT OF
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA THERE WILL BE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND TOPPED
BY A 10-15 KT FLOW AT 1000 FT OFF THE GROUND. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT
ONLY FROM THE STANDPOINT OF LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE AVERAGED 10 DEGREES 
UNDER THE 1000 FT FREE AIR TEMPERATURES THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. WE
ARE FORECASTING THIS DEPARTURE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR CRE AND
FLO...WITH A 7-8 DEGREE DEPARTURE AT ILM AND LBT. THIS STILL
PLACES US ON THE LOW END OF ALL MOS GUIDANCE. MOS
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE NAM MOS...HAS BEEN TOO WARM EACH OF
THE PAST THREE NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LARGELY A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT
PATTERN AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. SOME UNCERTAINTY WED
NIGHT INTO THU AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CUT INTO THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT THE FRONT TO
GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO INTRODUCE MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES WED NIGHT AND BRING WINDS BRIEFLY TO NE ON THU MORNING.
HOWEVER...RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS STRONG AND WILL SHOVE THE FRONT
BACK TO THE NORTH...SO POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE
THRESHOLDS. THU MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR THREE COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EXTENDED. THE 500MB PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN
AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORTWAVE...WELL TO THE
NORTH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO EDGE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO
WARRANT POPS FOR INLAND ZONES FRIDAY AND ALL AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY. THE BEST
POPS OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
SHOULD SEE A RESPITE FROM POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE WELL TO THE WEST AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ON
THE WARM SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXCELLENT FOR DENSE FOG
TO FORM. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS CALM...THUS MAXIMIZING THE 
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL.

VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR AT TIMES BY LATE THIS 
EVENING AT CRE AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT MYR. PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR 
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT CRE. 
AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS...IFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD DEVELOP 07Z-08Z 
AT FLO/LBT AND 09Z-10Z AT ILM. 

FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE 11Z-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS WITH VFR 
EXPECTED THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. A LAND BREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR 
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS 4-7 KNOTS EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING 
SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AT 
THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...NIGHTTIME IFR VSBYS THROUGH 
THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING WEST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND WAVES WILL RUN 1 FT OR
LESS...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A 2-3 FT 9 SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY
SWELL.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
UNDER STRONG RIDGING. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DIRECTION AS GFS/NAM NOW SEEM
TO AGREE ON BRINGING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA
LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. FOR NOW WILL REFLECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NE WINDS...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS UP ANY HIGHER THAN
2-3 FT. SEABREEZE TAKES OVER AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AND THE S/SW FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THU NIGHT. 
  
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 
THE PERIOD AS A FRONT MAKES IT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS AND
RETREATS NORTH. EXPECT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH POSSIBLY 15-20
KNOTS SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS FURTHEST TRACK EAST. SOME
DECENT CHOP WILL RESIDE IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM WITH 3-4
FEET...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF WIND WAVES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 3-5
FEET BY SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ034.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...ALL