000 FXUS62 KILM 290145 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 945 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2009 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 9 PM TUESDAY...AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT. THIS MEANS ANOTHER NIGHT OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THERE WILL BE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND TOPPED BY A 10-15 KT FLOW AT 1000 FT OFF THE GROUND. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT ONLY FROM THE STANDPOINT OF LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE AVERAGED 10 DEGREES UNDER THE 1000 FT FREE AIR TEMPERATURES THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. WE ARE FORECASTING THIS DEPARTURE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR CRE AND FLO...WITH A 7-8 DEGREE DEPARTURE AT ILM AND LBT. THIS STILL PLACES US ON THE LOW END OF ALL MOS GUIDANCE. MOS GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE NAM MOS...HAS BEEN TOO WARM EACH OF THE PAST THREE NIGHTS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LARGELY A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT PATTERN AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. SOME UNCERTAINTY WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CUT INTO THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT THE FRONT TO GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO INTRODUCE MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WED NIGHT AND BRING WINDS BRIEFLY TO NE ON THU MORNING. HOWEVER...RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS STRONG AND WILL SHOVE THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH...SO POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. THU MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR THREE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EXTENDED. THE 500MB PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORTWAVE...WELL TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO EDGE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT POPS FOR INLAND ZONES FRIDAY AND ALL AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY. THE BEST POPS OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOULD SEE A RESPITE FROM POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE WELL TO THE WEST AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXCELLENT FOR DENSE FOG TO FORM. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS CALM...THUS MAXIMIZING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR AT TIMES BY LATE THIS EVENING AT CRE AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT MYR. PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT CRE. AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS...IFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD DEVELOP 07Z-08Z AT FLO/LBT AND 09Z-10Z AT ILM. FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE 11Z-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS WITH VFR EXPECTED THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. A LAND BREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS 4-7 KNOTS EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...NIGHTTIME IFR VSBYS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 9 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND WAVES WILL RUN 1 FT OR LESS...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A 2-3 FT 9 SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER STRONG RIDGING. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DIRECTION AS GFS/NAM NOW SEEM TO AGREE ON BRINGING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. FOR NOW WILL REFLECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF NE WINDS...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS UP ANY HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT. SEABREEZE TAKES OVER AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AND THE S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THU NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FRONT MAKES IT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS AND RETREATS NORTH. EXPECT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH POSSIBLY 15-20 KNOTS SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS FURTHEST TRACK EAST. SOME DECENT CHOP WILL RESIDE IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM WITH 3-4 FEET...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF WIND WAVES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 3-5 FEET BY SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ034. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RAS LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR MARINE...ALL