000 
FXUS64 KFWD 311839 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
139 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS OF 18Z...WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AT UNDER
10 KNOTS BY 00Z...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY 03Z. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS 
PANHANDLE AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM APPROACHES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AT 15-20 KNOTS BY 15Z...AND THERE WILL
BE GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
START TO TAP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
AFTER  05Z THURSDAY.

BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD...CROSS WINDS WILL BE A
MAJOR PROBLEM ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. EXPECTED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS LIKELY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND A COOL DAY
IS IN STORE DAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE RIDING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO REMAIN OUT OF OUR
CWA BUT WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO GRIDS TO UPDATE LATEST HOURLY TRENDS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE IN SPEED DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ABOUT THE SAME TIME.
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER THROUGH THE DAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 70S IN THE
SOUTH.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE WEST. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE DRY LINE ENTERS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.  

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER WESTERN U.S. SYSTEM
TRANSLATES RAPIDLY EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DRY LINE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE
QUESTIONABLE AND MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS SHOULD PASS TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS LOW FOR NOW.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONAL EXCEPT FOR
SOME BRIEF COOL DOWNS TODAY...THURSDAY...AND SUNDAY.
 

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  78  54  63  43 /   0   5  20  20   5 
WACO, TX              49  81  57  64  43 /   0   5  20  20   5 
PARIS, TX             42  73  51  61  39 /   0   5  20  30   5 
DENTON, TX            45  78  52  62  39 /   0   5  20  30   5 
MCKINNEY, TX          45  74  53  67  39 /   0   5  20  30   5 
DALLAS, TX            52  77  54  63  45 /   0   5  20  20   5 
TERRELL, TX           47  76  55  68  41 /   0   5  20  20   5 
CORSICANA, TX         48  76  53  73  41 /   0   5  20  20   5 
TEMPLE, TX            47  79  54  79  41 /   0   5  20  20   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/82