000 FXUS64 KFWD 311839 AAB AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 139 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS OF 18Z...WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AT UNDER 10 KNOTS BY 00Z...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY 03Z. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AT 15-20 KNOTS BY 15Z...AND THERE WILL BE GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO TAP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AFTER 05Z THURSDAY. BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD...CROSS WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR PROBLEM ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS LIKELY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 58 && .UPDATE... COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND A COOL DAY IS IN STORE DAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE RIDING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO REMAIN OUT OF OUR CWA BUT WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO GRIDS TO UPDATE LATEST HOURLY TRENDS. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. 82/JLD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009/ A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ABOUT THE SAME TIME. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER THROUGH THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE WEST. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE DRY LINE ENTERS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER WESTERN U.S. SYSTEM TRANSLATES RAPIDLY EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY LINE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE QUESTIONABLE AND MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS LOW FOR NOW. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONAL EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF COOL DOWNS TODAY...THURSDAY...AND SUNDAY. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 47 78 54 63 43 / 0 5 20 20 5 WACO, TX 49 81 57 64 43 / 0 5 20 20 5 PARIS, TX 42 73 51 61 39 / 0 5 20 30 5 DENTON, TX 45 78 52 62 39 / 0 5 20 30 5 MCKINNEY, TX 45 74 53 67 39 / 0 5 20 30 5 DALLAS, TX 52 77 54 63 45 / 0 5 20 20 5 TERRELL, TX 47 76 55 68 41 / 0 5 20 20 5 CORSICANA, TX 48 76 53 73 41 / 0 5 20 20 5 TEMPLE, TX 47 79 54 79 41 / 0 5 20 20 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 58/82